Somalia : War Rages On, 80 Dead In Latest Clashes

While the attention of most of the world's media is focused on Iraq, Afghanistan and the return of military dictatorship to Pakistan, the fighting in Somalia rages on :

At least 80 Somalis have been killed in heavy fighting in Mogadishu within the past 48 hours, witnesses and doctors said Saturday, as residents continued to flee the beleaguered Somali capital.

A day after heavy shelling and gunfire claimed over 50 lives, residents said new bodies were discovered on Saturday morning in southern Mogadishu, where Ethiopian troops backing the shaky Somali government have been fighting Islamic insurgents for two days.

The fighting is some of the heaviest the war-ravaged city has seen since April. Hospitals are overflowing with patients and doctors say they lack medicine, beds and space for the wounded.

The fighting was sparked when Ethiopian troops began patrols two days ago in a southern Mogadishu neighborhood seen as a hotbed of support for the Islamic insurgents. Two Ethiopians were killed, and the mutilated body of one of the soldiers was dragged though the streets by protesting women and children. The Ethiopians subsequently fired tank shells into a civilian market.

December 2006 : Ethiopia's Prime Minister Declares War On Somali Islamists - Ethiopian Jets Strike Targets Inside Somalia

January 2007 : US Air Strikes Kill Dozens In Somalia - US Admits It Missed Most Of Its Insurgent Targets - Somali Warlords Set To Rule Again

March 2007 : US Backed Ethiopian Removal Of Islamic Courts From Power Sees Return Of Islamist Insurgency - Soldiers Bodies Burned In The Streets Of Capital

April 2, 2007 : Islamist Morars Rain Down On Mogadishu - Hundreds Killed, Thousands Flee - Combined Military Forces Of Ethiopian And Somali Governments Battle Insurgents

April 25, 2007 : Car Bombs Rock Somali Capital - War Spreads Through Ethiopia, Somalia And Eritrea

June 2007 : Mogadishu Becomes More Like Baghdad By The Day - Somalis Want To See Return Of Islamic Courts To Drive Out Ethiopian Troops And Warlords

Somalia : Car Bombs Rack Capital, 300 Die In Seven Days Of Fighting

War Spreads Between Ethiopia, Eritrea And Somalia

Four months after US-backed Ethiopian troops, aided by American gunships and CIA-ground operations, drove the Council of Islamic Courts from power in Mogadishu, the capital and surrounding villages are sinking into an abyss of horrific violence. Some 300 Somalis have died in fighting and car bomb attacks in the past seven days, with more than 700 wounded. Thousands of civilians are now fleeing the capital every day, leaving the streets to insurgents and Somali government troops, and small clusters of Ethiopian soldiers.

But the battle for control of Mogadishu, and greater Somali, is now threatening to consume Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, after an estimated 200 fighters stormed a Chinese-owned oil refinery in Ethiopia, near the Eritrea border, and killed more than 70 workers, including at least eight Chinese nationals.

China is making big moves in African nations as it tries to secure energy supplies, primarily oil, to fuel its growth in the coming decades. The oil refinery attacked was one that the Chinese government was most proud of, and which it had widely promoted, as a key example of how they were working with African nations for the benefit of Africans and China.

US intelligence and military sources are telling the American media the huge attack was staged by Somali Islamists, possibly tied to Al Qaeda, but the Ethiopian government is now blaming Eritrea, who firmly denies involvement.

The attack occurred in the disputed eastern Ethiopian territory of Ogaden. Ethnic Somalis have been running a low-level insurgency in the region for decades, claiming the territory as part of Somalia.

The 'Ogaden National Liberation Front' has claimed responsibility for the attacks, and said that any development in the region that directly benefits Ethiopians will "not be tolerated."

Ethiopia links the group to the Eritrean government, who it claims has waged a series of terrorist attacks against Ethiopia. With a land mass almost as large as Britain, the Ogaden territory is valuable border lands. Ethnic Somalis have long demanded the creation of an independent state for the four million inhabitants.

Eritrea and Ethiopia battled through a long border war that ceased in 2000. Both governments accuse each other of backing rivals in the Somali fighting.

The Financial Times reports :

Abderaman Mahdi, a spokesman for the rebels, said the deaths followed a battle between their fighters and Ethiopian soldiers protecting the exploration site. Any civilians killed – including the Chinese – were in the crossfire, he said. He added that the ONLF had taken five Chinese workers alive, and would be in touch with the International Red Cross to return them.

“It is very unfortunate. But we don’t allow anybody to drill on our land without our permission. The Ethiopians do not control the Ogaden and we have warned the Chinese that we will not allow them to drill there. They want our wealth without our consent,” he said by phone.

Chinese companies are working in other conflict-prone zones of the continent including southern Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria

This report from the New York Times breaks down some of the illusions about the true scope of the Islamist "insurgency" in Somalia.

The pro-'War on Terror' spin is that Somalia is riven with hundreds of thousands of militant Muslims, prepared to fight solely for the glory of Allah. But the reality is vastly different.

The Islamists are finding new recruits among black-market trading Somalis who don't want to submit to new tax programs introduced by the US-backed government, and don't want to change their old ways of doing business on the street.

With their livelihood, such as it is, threatened by vast changes to the social and financial structure of Mogadishu, thousands of young men are looking to the deposed Islamic courts as a way of keeping their rudimentary businesses alive :

Beyond clan rivalry and Islamic fervor, an entirely different motive is helping fuel the chaos in Somalia: profit.

A whole class of opportunists — from squatter landlords to teenage gunmen for hire to vendors of out-of-date baby formula — have been feeding off the anarchy in Somalia for so long that they refuse to let go.

They do not pay taxes, their businesses are totally unregulated, and they have skills that are not necessarily geared toward a peaceful society.

In the past few weeks, some Western security officials say, these profiteers have been teaming up with clan fighters and radical Islamists to bring down Somalia’s transitional government, which is the country’s 14th attempt at organizing a central authority and ending the free-for-all of the past 16 years.

They are attacking government troops, smuggling in arms and using their business savvy to raise money for the insurgency. And they are surprisingly open about it.

Omar Hussein Ahmed, an olive oil exporter in Mogadishu, the capital, said he and a group of fellow traders recently bought missiles to shoot at government soldiers.

“Taxes are annoying,” he explained.

“Even if we turned Mogadishu into Houston, there would still be people resisting us,” said Abdirizak Adam Hassan, chief of staff for Somalia’s transitional president, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed. “I’m talking about the guys bringing in expired medicine, selling arms, harboring terrorists. They don’t have a clan name. They’re a congregation of people whose best interests are served by no government.”

In the past month, the resistance has intensified and more than 1,000 people have been killed or wounded as the country has sunk into its deepest crisis since the famine days of the early 1990s.

Most of the victims are civilians...

Not all opportunists had the same agenda. Many in the business community became fed up with paying protection fees to the warlords and their countless middle-men.

Business leaders then backed a grass-roots Islamist movement that drove the warlords out of Mogadishu last summer and brought peace to the city for the first time in 15 years.

The Islamists seemed to be the perfect solution for the businessmen. They delivered stability, which was good for most business, but they did not confiscate property or levy heavy taxes. They called themselves an administration, not a government.

“Our best days were under them,” said Abdi Ali Jama, who owns an electrical supply shop in Mogadishu.

But then a radical wing took over, and the Islamists declared war on Ethiopia, which commands one of the mightiest armies in Africa. The Ethiopians, with covert American help, crushed the Islamist army in December and bolstered the authority of Somalia’s transitional government in the capital.

On Wednesday, Ethiopian officers reportedly met for peace talks with leaders from the Hawiye clan, Mogadishu's largest. A clan spokesman told Shabelle.net that "rival groups will concentrate on ceasing the gun fight in the capital and and announce a ceasefire agreement."

Neither side appears to believe right now that such a ceasefire will end the fighting, and the UN is now trying to tamp down growing threats of further hostilities and payback over the massacre at the Ethiopian oil refinery.

The UN estimates more than 320,000 Somalis have fled their homeland since February.

Somali Forces Pounded By Ethiopian Tanks

Seven Days Of Fighting In Somalia Leaves 300 Dead

US Wants African Peacekeepers To Replace Their Ethiopian Proxy Army In Somalia

Bush-Pushed "Liberation" Of Somalia Kills The Poor

Ethiopia Claims Eritrea Behind Attack On Chinese-Owned Oil Refinery, US Media Blames Somalis

Thousands Flee Mogadishu, Humanitarian Crisis Looms

UN Warns Somalia Facing Its Worst Ever Crisis

January, 2007 : Third Day Of US Air Strikes Kills Dozens Of Somalis - Fears Rise That Insurgency Will Explode And Violence Will Return To Mogadishu

Somalia : Mortars Rain Down On Mogadishu

Hundreds Killed And Wounded, Thousands Flee Their Homes

Ethiopian Troops Flee Bases As Helicopter Is Brought Down

A wave of brutal fighting between the Islamist insurgency and the combined forces of the Somali and Ethiopian governments has erupted in Mogadishu and is breaking out across Somalia.

Mortars and rockets have been raining down on the capital, thousands of civilians are fleeing their homes and hundreds have been killed and wounded in four vicious days of fighting.

The United States, via its special forces operations and CIA operatives, backed Ethiopia's push late last year to drive out the Islamic Courts council from Mogadishu. Somalis had clearly been enjoying too much peace and stability since the insidiously corrupt US-backed Somali government had been overthrown by the Islamic Courts in mid-2006.

Military analysts and a number of world leaders warned the US and Ethiopia that their actions would see a revival of the Islamic insurgency in Somalia, which could threaten the stability of Ethiopia's borders, as well as causing more untold misery for the civilians of Mogadishu.

Those warnings have all come true. Mogadishu is slipping back into a living hell of fighting and savagery, and the Islamic insurgency is resisting Ethiopia's attacks with the backing of most Somalis.

Bad news for Ethiopia and the US. The countless battles of Baghdad have proved it is all but impossible to wipe out an insurgency when it has the backing and support of a majority of the locals. Unless a truce or peace deal is worked out between the Islamic Courts and the Somali and Ethiopian governments, the conflict is expected to grow and threaten the stability of the greater region.

From Reuters :

The International Committee of the Red Cross said the clashes were the worst seen in Mogadishu for more than 15 years.

"We are now being shelled heavily," said one resident of the Tawfiq neighbourhood. "The mortars are being fired from south Mogadishu. People are very scared."

On Thursday Ethiopian troops backed by tanks and helicopter gunships began the assault to crush remnants of a hardline Islamist movement and clan militia fighting alongside them.

But civilians have been the main victims. Hospitals have been overwhelmed, even though most of the wounded have been unable to seek any kind of help because of the continuing battles. Doctors were trapped in their homes.

Ethiopia says its military has killed more than 200 "armed remnants" of a group fighting for the Union of Islamic Courts, ousted from the city over the new year.

As the fighting intensified, insurgents shot down an Ethiopian gunship with a missile. Mobs dragged some dead Ethiopian soldiers through the streets. Thousands of people have fled the city.

From the London Times :

An outraged Somali working for the United Nations accused the Ethiopians, who have used tanks and helicopter gunships to pound rebel positions, of committing “war crimes”.

“They are firing heavy artillery into residential areas . . . innocent people who have nothing to do with these insurgents, let alone Islamists, are being slaughtered. Where are all those human rights groups who go on about Mugabe now; this is ethnic cleansing dressed up as a war on terror,” he told The Times.

Estimates of the number of people killed vary widely. Some now put the death toll as high as 150, but with most of the Indian Ocean port city a “no-go” area it is impossible to verify. Hospitals across the city are overflowing with wounded. Residents say that they represent only a fraction of the casualties.

Somalia Suffers Through Worst Violence In 15 Years - Somalia Feared To Be Going The Way Of Afghanistan And Iraq - 'War On Terror' Blamed

Islamic Insurgency Picks Up Their Guns Again As Ethiopian Troops Try To Disarm The Locals

Somali Clan Leaders Ask UN, EU, US, Arab League To Demand Ethiopian Forces To Stop The Slaughter

Ethiopian Military Reinforcements Flood In To Close Down The Capital

8000 African Union Forces Back Up Somali Government Military - Ugandan Soldier Killed In Fighting

Ethiopian Military Helicopter Shot Down By Insurgents

Ethiopian Soldiers Reported To Be Abandoning Military Compounds On Outskirts Of Mogadishu

Mogadishu : Hospitals Swamped By The Dying And The Dead

Soldiers Bodies Burned In Streets Of Mogadishu

Insurgency Erupts In Somalia

As widely predicted, the American backed removal by Ethiopia military forces of the Islamic Courts from Mogadishu has resulted in Somalia returning to outbreaks of shocking violence, as a fresh insurgency starts to sweep through the capital, Mogadishu.

More than 40 people have died in clashes so far between military and insurgency forces.

Hundreds of families have fled the violence in Mogadishu. Two soldiers were dragged through the streets of the capital and their corpses torched in front of reporters, in scenes reminiscent of the 'Black Hawk Down' slaughter of American special forces in the mid-1993.

Somali government officials claim they have been under constant attack from Islamist insurgents since they took back control of Mogadishu in December last year from the Islamic Courts movement. Islamists claim, however, that the attacks are mostly coming from civilians who don't want the old government back in power, believing they are puppets of the United States and Ethiopian governments.

From GaroweOnline :

The fighting erupted in Shirkole, south of the city, when government forces tried to extend their control over the area, said an eyewitness.

"They [government forces] came less than an hour after morning prayers [5am]. As soon as they tried to move into the area they met stiff resistance [from residents]," he said. Government forces were pushed back, towards the former defence ministry headquarters, where Ethiopian troops are based, he said, adding that residents were "quickly joined by courts militias [remnants of the Union of Islamic Courts]".

The government said it was carrying out a security operation to collect illegal weapons from the residents.

A doctor, who confirmed the number of the dead, said almost 60 percent of those killed and injured were women and children.

A local journalist, who declined to be named, said the latest fighting was heaviest since the Transitional Federal Government took over the city in late December 2006. "It is no longer a hit-and-run thing but two groups of fighters facing each other," he added.

The Somali insurgents are fighting against a combined military force of Ethiopian and Somali government forces :

Hundreds of resistance fighters used rockets, mortars and light weapons to defend their turf against government expansion.

Government troops, backed by Ethiopian tanks and armor, positioned deep within insurgent strongholds overnight Tuesday, sparking the deadly clashes of the next morning, residents said.

Mobs of angry locals and insurgent fighters dragged the dead bodies of government soldiers through the streets and set them ablaze, reviving images from the unsuccessful U.S.-led United Nations peacekeeping mission in the mid-90s.

The fighting continued late into the afternoon, spreading into new areas and forcing hundreds of families to flee their homes.

It was the fiercest single day of battles since Somalia�s transitional government arrived in Mogadishu late last year.

Before then, Mogadishu and much of south-central Somalia was under the helm of the Islamic Courts authority, an Islamist group often credited for returning law and order during their six-month rule.

The government says Islamist rebels are responsible for nonstop attacks against its personnel and allies.

But the Islamists� former legislative chief, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, told the BBC that the resistance in Mogadishu was fueled by locals who did not wish to be under foreign military

From the New York Times :

Ethiopian troops and the soldiers of Somalia’s transitional government (are) both reviled by many people in Mogadishu, Somalia’s chaotic capital. Residents are now beginning to fear that this transitional government is headed in the same direction as the 13 transitional governments that came before it — into a vortex of clan violence and anarchy that has made Somalia an icon of a failed state.

At dawn on Wednesday, Ethiopian and government soldiers stormed into a neighborhood in southern Mogadishu to disarm gunmen there. Instead, witnesses said, they were greeted by dozens of masked insurgents who blasted them with rocket-propelled grenades.

More than 15 people were killed, including several government soldiers and possibly two Ethiopians.

The neighborhood is home to several clans that feel alienated by the transitional government and was a stronghold of the Islamist movement that took over the city and much of south-central Somalia last year, before being defeated by Ethiopian and government soldiers in December.

Somalia was not supposed to be like this anymore. Over the past several months, Ethiopia, the United States, the United Nations and the African Union have invested more hope and resources in the country than at any time since the failed peacekeeping mission of the early 1990s.

Heavy Fighting Between Somali Troops And Insurgents

Somali Clan Leaders Home Attacked

Savagery In Somalia - Soldiers Killed, Torched In Street

African Union Commander In Somalia Pleads For More Troops

Islamist Chief Claims Somali Government Leaders Working For Ethiopia

December 2006 : Ethiopian Prime Minister Declares War On Somali Islamists

January, 2007 : Third Day Of US Air Strikes Inside Somalia Leaves Dozens Dead

Somalia : Third Day Of US Air Strikes Leave Dozens Dead, Real Fears That Warlord Violence Will Return

The Fourth Front In The 'War On Terror' Opens Wide

UPDATE : If you're going to reveal that you wasted dozens of innocent people and compleely missed the targets of your anti-terror mission, reveal the truth on the day when half the world's media is totaly occupied with the 'Bush Surge Speech'.

None Of The Three Targeted Al Qaeda Terrorists Were Killed By Airstrikes In Somalia


The gruesomely efficient mass-killing machine that is the American gun ship has laid waste to dozens of Somalis near the Kenyan border, for the third day in a row.

The dead may or may not be Al Qaeda. They may or may not be some of the FBI's most wanted terrorists. And they may or may not even be Islamists. It seems unlikely that all the dead will turn out to be key 'War On Terror' targets, considering that at least one of the dead was a four year old boy, and two others were a young couple in the process of getting married.

To prove that the savagery of the guns-in-the-sky attack was worthwhile, the US, literally, needs Al Qaeda heads on a stick, because after being strafed by gunships, there is unlikely to be much left of their bodies.

On the ground are US special forces, amongst the ranks of the Ethiopian army, and the World Bank is directing millions of dollars in fresh cash to the Coptic Christian powers across the border from Somalia.

America is well and truly back in the land of 'Black Hawk Down'.

And the locals are already starting to talk about the attacks as being nothing more than pure, spiteful revenge for the early 1990s humiliation that Somali warlords dished out on American special forces ; downing at least three Black Hawk helicopters and killing some 18 highly trained American warriors.

The United States' decision to open up a fourth front in the 'War On Terror' has been met with shock and fury across the EU and words of warning from a clearly troubled, brand spanking new United Nations Secretary General.

There is little but the claims of the United States to cite truth that Al Qaeda is operating widely in Somalia, and seeking shelter for its most wanted amongst the Muslim-majority towns and villages.

It should have been a clear and easy sell to the American public : We're striking back at those who destroyed two of our African embassies in the late 1990s.

But so far, there is no proof that Al Qaeda operates in Somalia, that Islamists were threatening the Christians next door in Ethiopia, or even that the majority of Somalians were unhappy with the Islamic Courts that removed the foul and brutal warlords from their savage rule of the nation in June, 2006.

Incredibly, the United States and Ethiopia are now arguing over who supplied the intelligence that said Al Qaeda targets were hiding out in Somalia and had been located.

In Somalia, the US faces a choice between millions of people leaving relatively peacefully under a low-grade Sharia Law or slipping in the blood of their children and neighbours under the Law of the Warlords.

For now, the US appears to be backing the warlords, who have promised to strengthen the unelected 'interim' government of Somalia, as it tries to take control of the capital Mogadishu. But riots amongst Somalis, who were happy with the peace brought by the Islamic Courts (if displeased at the same time that nutters shot up a crowd watching the World Cup), have already broken out in Mogadishu, and plans to disarm the public at large are going badly, if not already abandoned. There are also stories now flowing out of Mogadishu that Islamists backed by the citizenry are attacking Ethiopian troops and at least one Army base of the Somali government forces.

The Islamists, for the most part, appear to have melted away, promising an Iraqish insurgency, of car bombings, suicide attacks and gruelling guerrilla warfare from the shadows for years to come.

Why is Somalia so important to US interests?

It is partly strategic in a world war manner, it is partly to do with the massive mineral and oil wealth of the region, but it also appears to have a lot to do with throwing off the veil and revealing the true colours of the 'War On Terror'.

That is, Christianity Vs Islam, or Islam Vs Christianity.

Few in the media have acknowledged the likelihood that this new front has as much to do with religious choices, and the possibility that Islamist rule can work, as it does with stopping 'terror'.

For there is little else more terrifying in the world, for the people on the ground, than the horrifically awesome spectacle of a couple of A130 gunships slashing thousands of rounds a second into your homes and villages and family members.

Many Somalians already view the gunship attacks as acts of terror, state terror this time, courtesy of the Americans.

It will be hard for the US to convince the locals that hypocrisy and blood-lust revenge have nothing to do with the new Somali front in the supposed 'War On Terror'.

Besides religion, oil wealth and revenge, Somalia also sits smack bang on what will prove to be a powerfully decisive front of the Fourth World War.

In short, he who controls the Red Sea passes through which much of the world's oil is shipped, controls all. And the Suez Canal is not far away.

As for how life will change for Somalis now the Islamic Courts no longer rule, there is this perspective from noted historian Niall Ferguson :

The Islamists offered Somalia order; not a Western order, to be sure, but order nonetheless.

Under their rule, the price of an AK-47 in the Mogadishu markets slumped to $15, a sure sign that the warlords were being forced to downsize their militias. Young men no longer roared through the streets in the Mad Max-style vehicles known locally as "technicals" trucks mounted with antiaircraft guns. Some were returning to school and university. Others were getting jobs with private electricity companies and airlines. Internet cafes were beginning to displace militia training camps. Kalashnikovs were being traded in for mobile phones.

Now, with the Islamists gone, the most likely scenario is a return of the warlords. Worse, the Islamists may now revert to the tactic of suicide bombing to destabilize the new government. As has happened in Afghanistan, the overthrow of an Islamist government will be followed not by a new order but by the old disorder.

...in the war on terror, the United States would rather see a country torn apart by multiple sons-of-bitches than ruled under Sharia law.

But the more U.S. foreign policy promotes anarchy instead of order, the stronger the Islamists' appeal will be. And the darker the shade of mischief that will ensue.

Whether or not the Islamists imposed a rule that was better for the majority of Somalis is beyond debate. About the only thing worse for the Somalis than the raping, child-slaying warlords would be a government composed of Hannibal Lecter clones starved into raw fury.

In Somalia, under the Islamic Courts, Sharia Law was not all-encompassing, and those who tried to outlaw dancing and kite-flying found the resistance was more trouble than it was worth. This was not Afghanistan, and despite the images on television, Somalis know all the about the West, its movies, clothes, TV shows, music, mobile phones, flash cars, gadgets and trinkets.

Somalis were finding a middle ground between Taliban-like religiously-imposed restrictions on their freedom and something close to Western-style debauchery. There were no strip clubs, but magazines like Vogue were eagerly being snatched up by Somali women looking for the latest fashions.

Perhaps it was this middle ground that terrified the Bush Neocons the most.

That Islamist rule could work, and lead towards totally democratic elections where, God forbid, the Islamists might win a powerful majority.

The United States had clearly decided that what happened with Hamas in Palestine, could not be allowed to happen with the Islamic Courts in Somalia.

Savage terror, pouring down from the sky, was deemed the better alternative.

As usual, former CIA action man Robert Baer provides the concise, nail-all sound bite :

"It's akin to the heart of darkness, just shooting into the jungle," he said.

"At the end of the day, you are just making more enemies."


Mission Failed : Official Admits Not Even One Of The Supposed Al Qaeda Terrorists Were Killed In Somali Airstrikes By The US That Killed Dozens Of Civilians

Coincidence? Ethiopia Invades Somalia - World Banks Gives Somalia $175 Million In 'Aid'

United States Went After 20 Targets In Somalia - Now Ethiopia And US Argue Over Who Supplied The Intelligence That Led To The Deadly Air Strikes

The Globalist Agenda In Somalia - Control Over Read Sea Oil Shipping Lanes & Suez Canal, With Oil Riches To Boot

US Warships Gather Off The Coast Of Somalia

Somali Interim President Defies US On Day Two Of His New Rule - Refuses US Request To Allow Moderate Islamists To Join His Government

New UN Secretary General Concerned About US Actions In Somalia - Fears Escalation Of Violence

US Special Forces, CIA, Working Inside Somalia With Ethiopian Troops

Dozens Killed By Airstrikes, Including Newlyweds

The Local View : Retreat Of Islamists Will See Resurgence In Clan Conflicts And Warlords Violence

THE HORN OF AFRICA WAR DRAWS CLOSER

ETHIOPIAN JETS HIT TARGETS IN SOMALIA AS THOUSANDS OF FOREIGN JIHADISTS POUR IN

ETHIOPIA'S PRIME MINISTER DECLARES WAR ON SOMALI ISLAMISTS

Less than two weeks ago, the prime minister of Ethiopia declared that his country had finished preparations for war with the Islamic Courts now controlling most of neighbouring Somalia.

This followed the meteoric rise of the Islamist movement in Somalia, where in less than eight months they have seized control of the Somali capital Mogadishu, taken control of key port cities and facilities and have surrounded the small town where the US-backed interim government is biding its time, protected by troops from Ethiopia.

Where this has the looming potential for all out war across the Horn of Africa is that Somali neighbour Eritrea has sent its own troops in to back the Islamists. Eritrea and Ethiopia have long regarded each other as hostile enemies.

Ethiopia, meanwhile, regards the presence of the Islamic Courts in Somalia as a "clear and present danger" and they fear not moving fast enough to stop the spread of the Islamists control and influence.

Ethiopia is a majority Christian country, but there are still millions of Muslims living peacefully, for the most part, as a quiet minority. Ethiopia fears what may happen if the Islamists can rally support amongst Ethiopian Muslims. Ironically, that will be far easier to do if Ethiopia launches a full-scale war against Muslims in Somalia.

The United States, meanwhile, backs Ethiopia, claims the Islamic Courts are actually Al Qaeda, and is preparing to deploy an African force, as well as establishing an Africa Command.

Yesterday and today, Ethopia launched jet fighter attacks against what it said were Islamist positions. Ethiopians tanks and attack helicopters have now entered Somalia.

From news.com.au :

Ethiopian forces defending Somalia's weak interim government have launched airstrikes against Islamist fighters in an escalation of a conflict that threatens to engulf the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopian Information Minister Berhan Hailu said the operation targeted several fronts including Dinsoor, Bandiradley and Baladwayne and the town of Buur Hakaba - close to the administration's encircled south-central base Baidoa.

It was the first use of airstrikes and Ethiopia's first public admission of its military involvement in Somalia, whose government is surrounded by fighters of the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC) backed by mortars and machineguns.

"After too much patience, the Ethiopian government has taken self-defensive measures and started counter-attacking the aggressive extremist forces of the Islamic Courts and foreign terrorist groups," Berhan told Reuters, saying "anti-Ethiopian" elements had massed along the border.

Both sides have rained rockets, mortars and machinegun fire across several parts of a slim frontline near Baidoa.

Amid the explosions, pick-up trucks armed with heavy weapons have ferried supplies forward and collected the injured.

In the Islamist port city of Kismayu, hundreds of women and children waved goodbye to 1,000 men who had volunteered for the frontline.

Dressed in a ragtag of fatigues, the men sped off in camouflage-painted trucks to the chants of "Victory is ours".

Further north in Mogadishu, scores of women and children gathered in one of the main markets to badger men walking along the streets to join the war.

"They told me to wear their clothes if I will not go to war," said Abdi Rashid. "They said I'm not a man, because all men are on the frontline, so I should wear women's clothes."

Military experts estimate Ethiopia has 15,000-20,000 troops in Somalia, while Eritrea has about 2,000 behind the Islamists.

The conflict kicked into a higher, more deadlier, gear less than two weeks ago, when the Ethiopian prime minister declared that his nation was preparing for a full-blown war with Somalia's Union of Islamic Courts. The Islamists, for now, control the Somali capital Mogadishu, key port cities and most of the southern and central regions of the country.

The US-backed Somali transitional government is now holed up the small town of Baidoa, where they beg for help from Ethiopia and the West, while Islamists train mortars and machine guns on the government compound.

The United States quickly announced it would support a deployment of African troops into Somalia to protect the government from Islamists. The US accuses the Islamic Courts of being in league with Al Qaeda, a charge the Islamists regard as a fiction, and more US propaganda.

Some background on the conflict, and how it became a reality of 'The Fourth World War.'

From Shabelle.net :

Somalia lost its central government in 1991 when tribal warlords toppled former president Mohammed Siad Barre. Peace talks in the Sudanese capital Khartoum have ended in failure early this month after Islamic Courts demanded that all Ethiopian forces in the country leave.

The major problem for the United States and Ethiopia right now is that the Islamic Courts are not altogether unpopular with Somalis, who utterly despised the warlords that ruled and destroyed their nation for more than a decade.

The Islamists have chased out most of these warlords, and the locals are happy. They're not so happy about the introduction of Islamist Sharia Law, but from the wealth of media coming out of Somalia and Ethiopia, it appears just how hardcore the Sharia Law in use depends on where you live in Somalia.

In some towns the local clerics don't allow music and dancing or uncovered women, but in other villages the rules are far more lax.

That the United States ended up backing Somali warlords against the Islamists is yet another ironic shock, considering it was some of these very same warlords who killed, or helped to kill, almost two dozen American special forces officers during the infamous 'Black Hawk Down' raids on Mogadishu in the early 1990s.

Why does this conflict between Ethiopia and the Islamists in Somalia have such potential to become a full-blown war stretching across the Horn of Africa?

From the London Times :

The Horn of Africa, one of the world’s most volatile regions, edged closer to war today after Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, said that his country had completed preparations to take on a powerful Islamic alliance in neighbouring Somalia.

Mr Zenawi told the Ethiopian parliament that the Islamists presented a "clear and present danger" to Ethiopia, whose main regional foe — Eritrea — was arming them.

He said that attempts to settle the crisis through dialogue and negotiation had proved fruitless.

The Islamists, who now control most of Somalia, later met in emergency session in the capital, Mogadishu, and vowed to defend the country against a "reckless and war-thirsty" Ethiopia.

However, at the same time the Supreme Islamic Council of Somalia, a coalition of 11 Islamic organisations that wrested power earlier this year from local warlords, invited Washington to send an official delegation to Mogadishu for talks.

Council spokesman Abdurahim Muddey said: "We are inviting the United States to send a delegation to see what is happening in Somalia... The US delegation will be received by our foreign relations chief, Ibrahim Hassan Addow, who is himself an American citizen."

The United States has accused the Islamists of links to al-Qaeda and encouraged Ethiopia to send 5,000 troops to support a rump government based in the border town of Baidoa.

The Islamists’ supreme leader, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, has been designated a "terrorist" by the US, which earlier this month warned that Somali extremists may be plotting suicide attacks in Kenya and Ethiopia.

Intelligence sources say Washington has indicated to Ethiopia that it would not oppose a military operation to remove the Islamists, but regional experts say such an action would ignite the entire region.

Eritrea and Ethiopia fought a devastating border war in 1998-2000 and have several unresolved border disputes.

It is feared both would soon be directly embroiled in any fresh conflict.

Washington previously ran a covert operation to support Somali warlords fighting the Islamists for control of Mogadishu that collapsed in June when the city fell.

The warlords carved up Somalia in 1991 after the Cold War dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre, was overthrown and since then has known nothing but anarchy.

The following story, from the Washington Post is a few weeks old, but it hits some of the same key points about why this conflict has the potential to spill out across the Horn of Africa :

Ethiopia acknowledges sending military advisers to Somalia, although Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has threatened to send tens of thousands of troops across the border if the Council of Islamic Courts attacks.

Experts have warned that Somalia has become a proxy battleground for Somalia's neighbors, Eritrea and Ethiopia. A recent confidential U.N. report said 6,000 to 8,000 Ethiopian troops were inside Somalia or near its border with Ethiopia, backing the interim government. The report also said 2,000 troops from Eritrea were inside Somalia supporting the Islamic militia.

Somalia has not had an effective government since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then turned on each other. The current administration was formed with the help of the United Nations two years ago, but it has failed to assert any control outside the town of Baidoa.

The Council of Islamic Courts, meanwhile, has steadily gained ground since taking over Mogadishu in June and now controls much of southern Somalia.

The United States has accused the Islamic group of sheltering suspects in the 1998 al-Qaeda bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

And so, then, how to avoid such a war becoming a reality?

From the Toronto Star :

If a full-scale war in Somalia is to be averted, the international community must first look to its meddling neighbours and help Ethiopia and Eritrea resolve their unresolved tension, argues Terrence Lyons, an associate professor at the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution in his paper "Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa."

Lyons says the 2000 peace process that ended the war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is falling apart – in particular, failing to demarcate a new border between the countries – and only by ending this stalemate can regional war be averted.

International involvement is now key – both in helping facilitate peace talks and avoiding strong-arm tactics that could draw foreign fighters and incite the wider war that Osama bin Laden called for during his last taped message

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