Monday, January 23, 2006


Spengler, in the Asia Times
, lays out a strong analysis for why the War Against Iran will go ahead. Iran has no choice but to pursue nukes, China will try to stop the war because high oil prices will destroy its massive growth and prosperity and there is no shortage of 'allies' ready to get on board with the destruction of Iran.

"Just outside Iran's present frontiers," writes Spengler, "lie the oil resources of Iraq, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and not far away are the oil concentrations of eastern Saudi Arabia. Its neighbors are quite as alarmed as Washington about the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, and privately quite happy for Washington to wipe out this capability.

"It is remarkable how quickly an international consensus has emerged for the eventual use of force against Iran. Chirac's indirect reference to the French nuclear capability was a warning to Tehran."

But whatever happens, Spengler doesn't see it turning out at all good for the US, and for President Bush in particular :

"Rather than a legacy of prosperity and democracy in the Middle East, the administration of US President George W Bush will exit with an economy weakened by higher oil prices and chaos on the ground in Iraq and elsewhere. But it really has no other options, except to let a nuclear- armed spoiler loose in the oil corridor. We have begun the third act of the tragedy that started on September 11, 2001, and I see no way to prevent it from proceeding. "