US Vs Pakistan : Troops Exchange Fire On Border

Claim : American Forces Preparing To Set Up Base In Borderlands

Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and now Pakistan :

Pakistani and American ground troops exchanged fire along the border with Afghanistan on Thursday after the Pakistanis shot at two American helicopters, ratcheting up tensions as the United States increases its attacks against militants from Al Qaeda and the Taliban, who are being sheltered in Pakistan’s restive tribal areas.

The two American OH-58 Kiowa reconnaissance helicopters were not damaged and no casualties were reported on either side from the ground fire. But American and Pakistani officials agreed on little else about what happened in the fleeting mid-afternoon clash between the allied troops.

American and NATO officials said that the two helicopters were flying about one mile inside Afghan air space to protect an American and Afghan patrol on the ground when the aircraft were fired on by small-caliber arms fire from a Pakistani military checkpoint near Tanai district in Khost Province.

In response, the American ground troops shot short bursts of warning fire, which hit well shy of the rocky, hilltop checkpoint, and the Pakistanis fired back, said Rear Adm. Gregory Smith, a spokesman for the Central Command.

General Abbas, the Pakistani spokesman, said the clash had been reported to NATO headquarters in Kabul and was under investigation by both Pakistani and NATO officials.

Although it lasted just a few minutes, military officials and diplomats said the brief clash showed there was a risk of a much more serious, and lethal, misunderstanding along the border.

Pakistani civilian leaders have denounced an incursion by American Special Operations forces into Pakistan on Sept. 3, which was authorized under orders given by President Bush in July, and the Pakistani Army has vowed to defend its border “at all costs.”

“We will not tolerate any act against our sovereignty and integrity in the name of the war against terrorism,” Pakistan’s prime minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, told reporters on Wednesday. “We are fighting extremism and terror not for any other country, but our own country.”

Pakistan has made it very clear to the Americans that they will not, at least publicly, tolerate American forces fighting the WoT on Pakistan territory. On this front, the Pakistan government and the Taliban are in total agreement.

Syed Saleem Shahzad, writing in the Asia Times :

Pakistan is now the declared battleground in this struggle by Islamic militants to strike first against American interests before the United States' war machine completes its preparations to storm the sanctuaries of al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

Already, though, events had been set in motion to shape this new battlefield.

Approximately 20 kilometers from Islamabad lies Tarbella, the brigade headquarters of Pakistan's Special Operation Task Force (SOTF). Recently, 300 American officials landed at this facility, with the official designation as a "training advisory group", according to documents seen by Asia Times Online.

However, high-level contacts claim this is not as simple as a training program.

...the US has bought a huge plot of land at Tarbella, several square kilometers, according to sources directly handling the project. Recently, 20 large containers arrived at the facility. They were handled by the Americans, who did not allow any Pakistani officials to inspect them.

Given the size of the containers, it is believed they contain special arms and ammunition and even tanks and armored vehicles - and certainly have nothing to do with any training program.

There is little doubt in the minds of those familiar with the American activities at Tarbella that preparations are being made for an all-out offensive in North-West Frontier Province against sanctuaries belonging to the Taliban and al-Qaeda led by bin Laden. Pakistani security sources maintain more American troops will arrive in the coming days.

For both the militants and the United States, the gloves have come off.

Bajuar : 7 Soldiers, 25 Militants Killed In Fighting

Waziristan : 5 Clerics Hit In Attacks

Pakistan : 175 Militants, Soldiers Killed In 48 Hours Of Fierce Fighting

President Musharraf may well remain in control of Pakistan, following controversial elections last weekend, but the pressure on him from the United States to rein in militants in the Afghan border regions will only intensify.

The war in the tribal border regions is growing more deadly for Pakistan's military by the week, and speculation is now rife inside Pakistan's military that India may be fueling the fighting by feeding weapons and cash to militants via proxies inside Afghanistan.

The AFP is reporting that some 130 militants, and dozens of Pakistani soldiers have been killed in fighting near the Afghan border in the past two days :

The fighting raged throughout Sunday and Monday in the troubled tribal region of North Waziristan, which the United States has pinpointed as the new breeding ground for Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda extremist network.

The army said the pro-Taliban rebels were unusually well-trained and were getting support from Afghanistan, where the Taliban movement has waged a fierce insurgency since being toppled in late 2001.

The unrest puts extra pressure on key US ally Pervez Musharraf two days after he swept a presidential poll, the result of which the embattled military ruler must wait to have confirmed by the Supreme Court.

"The clashes broke out after militants set off IEDs (improvised explosive devices) and conducted ambushes on the security forces" on Sunday, top military spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad told AFP.

"The forces retaliated and killed 130 militants in air strikes and ground attacks. Forty-five security personnel were also martyred."

Most of the fighting has been near Mir Ali, the second-biggest town in rugged North Waziristan, where Musharraf admitted earlier this year that Al-Qaeda had a presence.

Local residents said four civilians also died, including three women, although the army could not confirm this. Around 30 houses were destroyed or badly damaged as troops and rebels exchanged heavy weapons fire, they said.

Violence has spiked in the northwestern region since Pakistani security forces besieged and then raided the Al-Qaeda-linked Red Mosque in Islamabad in July -- an operation that bin Laden has urged militants to avenge.

The fighting was some of the bloodiest since Musharraf pushed tens of thousands of troops into the tribal zone to tackle militants who fled over the border into Pakistan after the US-led invasion to topple the Taliban regime.

Nearly 300 people in Pakistan have died in attacks since the Red Mosque crisis, most of which have been suicide bombings.

Sixteen 'Foreign' Fighters Killed In Clashes Near Afghan Border

US Blamed For Pakistan's Insecurity

15 Killed By Suicide Bomber In NorthWest Pakistan

Pakistan Forced To Pull Back From Chasing Down Al Qaeda

"Iraq Style" War Grows In Borderlands Between Pakistan Army And Violent Islamists

Pakistan's First Female Suicide Bomber Kills 14

President Musharraf appears to have plenty more to keep him occupied right now than worrying about whether or not he is a "good ally" in the US-led 'War on Terror'. For starters, Osama Bin Laden (at least the audio tape Bin Laden) has officially declared war on him for being an ally of the United States, and his recent crackdowns on borderland jihadists and an Islamabad mosque filled with radicals have eaten away at his popularity amongst Pakistanis.

The LA Times reports that "Political turmoil and a spate of brazen attacks by Taliban fighters are forcing Pakistan's president to scale back his government's pursuit of Al Qaeda..."

US intelligence officials now believe the Al Qaeda network will be free to plot fresh attacks and rebuild.

Musharraf's crackdown on Al Qaeda in the border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan was seen as a "pillar of the US counter-terrorism strategy". The theory went that the more pressure Musharraf packed on to the disparate groupings of Al Qaeda inspired terrorists, the harder it would be for them to plot, plan and carry out new attacks.

President Musharraf faces defeat in elections on the weekend, and his military "has suffered a series of embarrassing setbacks at the hands of militants in tribal areas bordering Afghanistan where Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda figures are believed to be hiding."

In the ancient borderlands, Pushtan chiefs are now warning of a growing "Iraq style" war between the Pakistan Army and violent Islamists :

Pashtun tribal chiefs, who for centuries have held sway in the Hindu Kush mountain range along the border with Afghanistan, say they are being thrust into an Iraq-style war between violent Islamists and the Pakistani army.

"It's there. Bombs going off every day," said Haroon-ur-Rasheed, one of eight tribal leaders who drove for hours to the regional capital of Peshawar to speak with a reporter and photographer for The Washington Times.

The leaders described a violent tribal area in which Islamic militants routinely behead women suspected of adultery and use bombs to destroy schools for girls — so far only on Sundays, when no students are present.

Pakistani army forces who venture into the area are also being targeted with rockets, mortars and roadside bombs modeled on those being used to attack American troops in Iraq.

In the latest incident yesterday, a burqa-wearing terrorist detonated herself in the town of Bannu on the fringe of the tribal areas, killing 14. Wire agencies said it appeared to be the first instance of a female suicide bomber in Pakistan.

The leaders were particularly concerned about occasional raids by U.S. forces based in Afghanistan who have pursued Taliban insurgents across the border into Pakistan.

The tribal leaders scoffed at U.S. claims that Arab terrorists and other foreign fighters are hiding in the tribal areas. The only foreigners, they said, were fellow ethnic Pashtuns from Afghanistan.

"There never has been a full-fledged border. People are related, by blood. Members of the same family cross back and forth every day. It's been like this for centuries," said Mohammed Ameen. "The Americans see these people going back and forth and think they see the Taliban. To say they are Taliban is just as false as those chemical weapons in Iraq."

More on the American perspective from the LA Times :

U.S. intelligence officials said the conditions that have allowed Al Qaeda to regain strength are likely to persist, enabling it to continue training foreign fighters and plot new attacks.

"We are worried," said a senior U.S. counter-terrorism official who closely monitors Pakistan's pursuit of Al Qaeda in the rugged frontier region. The official, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter.

"I think the prospect for aggressive action . . . is probably not good, no matter what," said the official, referring to the federally administered tribal areas where Al Qaeda is particularly strong. If Musharraf is removed from office or agrees to a power-sharing arrangement with political foes, the "change in government could well mean a diminution of cooperation on counter-terrorism," the official added.

A senior U.S. intelligence official said Pakistani retrenchment appears to have begun.

"We're already beginning to see some signs of that," the official said, citing a recent series of reversals by the Pakistan military.

"In the next few days, we're probably going to see a withdrawal of forces that the Pakistanis put there," the intelligence official said, adding that the move could solidify a "safe haven, where the [Al Qaeda] leadership is secure, operational planners can do their business, and foreigners can come in and be trained and redeploy to the West."

Over the years, Musharraf's commitment to rooting out elements of Al Qaeda and the Taliban has sometimes been questioned. Last fall, the president struck a peace agreement with tribal leaders in North and South Waziristan, scaling back military operations in return for a pledge that the tribes would rein in foreign fighters.

Instead, American intelligence officials said, the deal took pressure off Al Qaeda at a critical time, enabling it to regroup and reestablish ties with terrorist affiliates in other parts of the world.

In recent months, Musharraf has sent troops to the tribal areas, particularly after a series of suicide bombings by militants who vowed revenge after government forces in July stormed a radical mosque in Islamabad, the capital.

Polls in Pakistan suggest that Bin Laden is more popular than many of the Muslim nation's politicians, and analysts say it is extremely difficult for the beleaguered Musharraf to remain aligned with the U.S.

"From a domestic politics perspective, sustained Pakistani action against Al Qaeda in [the tribal areas] would be suicidal," said Seth Jones, an expert on terrorism and Pakistan at Rand Corp. "It would only increase hatred against his regime at the precise moment when he is politically weakest."

That political turmoil could cost the Bush administration cooperation from a key ally in the Islamic world, one that has nuclear arms. Musharraf has been praised repeatedly by President Bush, and Pakistan has received more than $5.6 billion in aid over the last six years, most of it meant to reimburse the country for counter-terrorism efforts.

Under new pressure from Washington, Musharraf sent military divisions back into the tribal areas this summer. Initially, the forays appeared to catch Al Qaeda by surprise, U.S. intelligence officials said, prompting the organization to pull back.

But the government's border troops recently have been subjected to a series of suicide attacks and kidnappings, the U.S. intelligence official said. Overall, dozens of Pakistani soldiers and hundreds of extremists and foreign fighters have been killed.

"The whole purpose of [U.S.-Pakistani] operations is to eliminate people who primarily target the United States and the West," the senior counter-terrorism official said. That means Musharraf ends up being seen as "complicit in killing or capturing people who many Pakistanis think should be treated as heroes."

The United States has provided significant intelligence assistance for Pakistan's pursuit of Al Qaeda, including the deployment of CIA teams and Predator surveillance drones.

Pakistan's central government has never had substantial control over the border region. Bin Laden and other Al Qaeda figures fled to the rugged area after being flushed from Afghanistan. U.S. officials said the terrorist network was seen as increasingly isolated and in a financial crunch until Musharraf's peace accord with the tribes last fall.

Yesterday, at least 14 people were killed in a bomb attack on a van in the North Waziristan province of Pakistan. The bomb was detonated by remote control, but no group has yet claimed responsibility.


Re-Elect Me And I'll Step Down As Army Chief, Musharraf Promises

Pushtan Chiefs Rail Against Being Pushed Into An "Iraq-Style" War Between Pakistan Army And Violent Islamists

Militants Claim They Have Kidnapped 21 Pakistan Army Soldiers

Condi Rice Says "Moderate Forces Must Unite", Says Musharraf Pulled Pakistan Back From Brink Of Being Over-run By Extremists

BushCo.'s Big Problem With Pakistan

Musharraf : Not All Taliban Are Terrorists

Pakistan Will Allow Iran To India Gas Pipeline

BushCo. are pressuring Pakistan's president General Pervez Musharraf to enter into a power sharing arrangement with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. Musharraf is seen to be dramatically losing favour with middle class Pakistanis, and a growing target of extremists and influential tribal leaders who feel he is doing America's work in crushing supposedly Al Qaeda aligned and sympathetic tribal groups in the Afghanistan border territories.

Musharraf himself has expressed sympathy towards the Taliban, claiming recently that not all Taliban should be regarded as terrorists. Claims by Musharraf that were barely reported in Western media.

The US doesn't want to see Musharraf fall, but they know he cannot cling to power without stirring up more trouble, and spreading the extremists cause. The recent siege of the Red Mosque is now viewed as having been extremely damaging to Musharraf's hold on power, as it resulted in the deaths of dozens of women and children, as well as numerous soldiers.

The more Musharraf cracks down on extremists in Pakistan, and in the Afghanistan border regions, the more he is seen to be fighting America's War on Terror, which for a growing number of Muslims is viewed as a Christian War On Islam.

But the War on Terror also brings in billions of dollars to Musharraf's military. More than $US10 billion since 9/11.

And yet, Musharraf is not playing ball with BushCo. when it comes to Iran. Musharraf has said that it is in his country's "national interest" for a new gas pipeline to pass through Pakistan territory. A pipeline running from Iran to India.

In short, as this story from the Boston Globe puts it, the US has a 'Big Problem' in Pakistan :

After having said he didn't spend much time thinking about Osama bin Laden, the latest National Intelligence Estimate has forced President Bush to face up to the fact that a reconstituted Al Qaeda in Pakistan is a major threat -- perhaps the major threat -- to the United States.

Clearly, President Pervez Musharraf's attempt to buy peace and loyalty on the northwest frontier has backfired. He had hoped to head off increasing support for Islamist extremists, but instead Al Qaeda has been the beneficiary. Frances Townsend, Bush's Homeland Security adviser, spoke the truth when she said; "It hasn't worked for Pakistan, and it hasn't worked for the United States."

The siege and storming of the Red Mosque has riled the faithful, and Musharraf's unlawful and unsuccessful attempt to unseat Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry has made the president of Pakistan look foolish.

But what to do? There have been hints of military action against Al Qaeda in Pakistan, some of them clandestine to avoid embarrassing Musharraf who has forbidden American troops on Pakistani soil. Presidential hopeful Barack Obama has advocated attacking Al Qaeda in Pakistan no matter what the Pakistanis think -- a formula for disaster. The idea of Navy Seals, CIA, or Special Forces operating in some of the most remote and desolate territory on earth without benefit of local knowledge or Pakistani help would be counterproductive in the extreme.

Moreover, the American way of war depends on massive firepower from the air, not the determined, loss-inflicting, village-to-village way that is necessary in irregular warfare. The number of civilian deaths being inflicted in neighboring Afghanistan by American and NATO forces has caused President Hamid Karzai to protest time and time again -- the reason being that these civilian deaths are turning the local population against the government. When the tipping point arrives, all our efforts in Afghanistan are doomed. To repeat this in Pakistan would be a strategic blunder on the scale of Iraq.

A result of American armed intervention in Pakistan could be the dissolution of Pakistan itself. The border lands with Afghanistan, Balochistan, and the Northwest Frontier Province -- never mind the tribal territories -- are a major problem for Pakistan. Costly and nation-threatening revolts have plagued the government since Pakistan was formed.

The British had constant problems in the border regions during their tenure, with armed rebellions in Waziristan as late as the 1930s. The strange arrangement of the tribal territories, which are not completely under the government's control, are a legacy of those times when the British tried to buy peace on the frontier.

Unfortunately not everybody in Pakistan, including some in the intelligence services, think it a bad thing to have a Taliban card to play just in case Afghanistan turns against Pakistan at some future date. Pakistan has not forgotten that once the Soviets called it quits and withdrew beyond the river Oxus, America lost interest and just walked away, leaving the region in chaos.

More on how the US is now prodding Musharraf to share power :

General Musharraf, an important ally since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, has lost so much domestic support in recent months that American officials have gotten behind the idea that an alliance with Benazir Bhutto, a former prime minister, would be his best chance of remaining president.

The two met in an unannounced session in Abu Dhabi on July 27, but neither has publicly admitted to the meeting. Since then, many in Pakistan have heard the rumors and voiced their doubts about the workability and political wisdom of such a deal, and American officials concede that the proposed power-sharing could come with problems as well as benefits.

But after weeks of unrest in Pakistan, the American officials say a power-sharing agreement that might install Ms. Bhutto as prime minister could help defuse a confrontation in which General Musharraf has already flirted with invoking emergency powers. Administration officials have said they fear that General Musharraf could eventually be toppled and replaced by a leader who might be less reliable as a guardian of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and as an ally against terrorism.

Even if General Musharraf were to insist on remaining as the country’s military leader, American officials say that sharing power could bring a more democratic spirit to Pakistan, which has been a quasi-military dictatorship since 1999, when General Musharraf seized power and ousted Ms. Bhutto’s successor, Nawaz Sharif.

Ms. Bhutto has been holding talks in recent weeks with senior Bush administration officials, including Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, with whom she met privately late last week.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did discuss the idea of a power-sharing arrangement when she called General Musharraf last week at 2 a.m. in Pakistan to warn him not to declare emergency powers, American and Pakistani officials said.

In an interview with The New York Times on Monday, Ms. Bhutto said that she was aware that an alliance with the now-weakened General Musharraf could hurt her politically.

“We want to avoid a situation where we are seen as bailing out an unpopular military dictatorship,” said Ms. Bhutto, who has been living in London and Dubai. She said the pace of the talks between General Musharraf and her Pakistan People’s Party was too slow, with him making promises that he has not kept.

“When we are doing this for a level playing field, when we’re doing this for a higher cause, which is the restoration of the people’s right to elect a government of their choice, that should translate into tangible measures,” Ms. Bhutto said. “And if it doesn’t translate into tangible measures, then it can be misinterpreted by the people at large.”

In comments barely even reported by Western media, let alone commented upon, President Musharraf recently declared that not all Taliban are necessarily terrorists, as the United States widely defines them :

"We must understand the environment. Taliban are a part of Afghan society. Most of them may be ignorant and misguided, but all of them are not diehard militants and fanatics, who even defy the most fundamental values of our culture and our faith Islam," Musharraf said...

To root out Al-Qaida and Taliban militants from the region, Musharraf called for a more comprehensive long-term strategy along with military action.

"Talibanisation and extremism represent a state of mind and require a more comprehensive long-term strategy where military action must be combined with a political approach and socio-economic development," he said.

"Our approach must be focussed on isolating those diehard militants who reject reconciliation and peace. Here, it is a question of winning hearts and minds," he added.

One controversial issue where Musharraf is clearly defying the wishes of BushCo. is on the Iran to India gas pipeline, which will weave through Pakistan territory. President Bush, and the energy cabal that thrust him into power, don't want the pipeline to go ahead, because it will affect world prices and reduce the US-pushed sanctions against countries doing business with Iran to tatters.

Musharraf said the pipeline will go ahead, because it was in Pakistan's "national interest".


Pakistan Warns US On Damage To Relations

Raw Story : How Pakistan Provided Troops And Military Aid To The Taliban

The World News In Brief

Turkey : The impending conflict between Turkish military and PKK (Kurdish) militants in Northern Iraq has been boiling away for months. News report today state that Turkey has begun bombarding Northern Iraq, launching attacks with warplanes on PKK held positions in the mountains of Northern Iraq, and blasting more than 250 shells into the region. A new front in Iraq War, this time pitting 'terrorists' against the military of Turkey, appears ready to break open. The Iraqi government, and the United States, would be expected to force Turkish forces back over the border if they tried to root out the PKK militants they believe are responsible for terror attacks inside Turkey. The United States has been forced to repeatedly deny that it is funding and arming Kurdish militants in the north, who dream of a breakaway nation, taking in chunks of Turkey, Iran and Iraq. Another report claims the Kurdish militant leader wants more power in political circles, rather than greater independence.


Mexico : So who is claiming responsibility for the bomb attacks that have crippled key gas pipeline in Central Mexico? No group most people have heard of. The attacks are being written off as a bit of a mystery. But energy industry experts are warning that American and Mexican officials should take the threat posed by one revolutionary group in particular very seriously. Mexico exports more than 1.4 million barrels of oil across the border into the United States every day, making its America's second largest oil supplier. Mexico has been described as "a dangerously soft target since it has more than 17,000 miles of oil pipelines and 8,235 miles of natural gas pipelines to protect."


Pakistan : As chaos reigns across Pakistan's north west border regions, with anti-Musharraf militants launching new attacks and ambushes on soldiers, the most recent killing more than 16 troops, the United States has threatened to intervene militarily. It's just an unofficial threat at this stage. A rally supporting an opposition alternative leader to Musharraf has been hit by bombings, killing at least twelve people. Another report says the attack on Pakistani soldiers happened in Northern Waziristan, close to the border with Afghanistan, and the ambush involved bombings and militants raking the military vehicles with gunfire, leaving 17 soldiers dead.


The Philippines : Trouble brewing. The Philippines is said to moving closer and closer to all out war between Islamist forces, Abu Sayyaf, and the government marines, dozens of whom have been killed in recent weeks in a series of spectacular, and shocking, attacks. 10 Filipino marines were beheaded by Islamists during an ambush last week in the south of the country. The Philippines government is believed to be preparing to launch an all-out military offensive against Aby Sayyaf and its supporters. More than 100,000 people have been killed during years of clashes between Muslims and Christians, with tit-for-tat revenge and retribution killings continuing a cycle of violence that rarely hits the headlines, or is mentioned by the coalition of the willing leaders when they discuss the 'War on Terror'.


Sri Lanka : Battles continue to rage between government forces and Tamil Tigers in the country's north. Government forces are trying to take back more guerrilla-controlled territory, forcing separatist Tamils into more isolated and less resourced country. Four government special forces soldiers were killed in the most recent fighting, along with one Tamil Tiger guerrilla. The most recent clashes assassinations of government officials in the north east.
The Tamils recently lost key territory in the east and have vowed to take it back from government forces. Government forces regard the seizure of previously Tamil-held territory as a great victory, worth celebrating. But the threats of Tamils to take revenge on the army and return to guerrilla warfare in the east has caused great concern in the capital Colombo, as people believe it will see a return of the car bombs and suicide attacks that made the Tamil Tigers infamous as more prolific suicide bombers than even Al Qaeda, or elements of the Iraqi resistance. More than 5000 people have been killed in the past 19 months of fighting in the north and east.


Russia : The UK Independent has a good story on The Plot To Kill Boris Berezovsky. Russia has now booted out four British diplomats in retaliation over the UK's expelling of four Russian diplomats from London in response to Russia's refusal to cooperate in the British investigation into the murder of a former KGB, and possible double, agent by radioactive poisoning. In other news, Russia has rejected the final version of the Kosovo resolution. The resolution now faces a veto. Russia doesn't want Kosovo to be independent, and become a bastion of Islamic extremism. So does the UK and the US want that reality?


We'll have a round-up of recent Iraq-related news in the coming days.

Pakistan : More Than 70 Police, Soldiers Killed In Revenge Attacks For Red Mosque Massacre

Peace Deal Between Tribal Pro-Taliban Leaders And Musharraf Torn Up

New Holy War Looms

The revenge attacks from Islamists in remote tribal Pakistan against the Musharraf military dictatorship were expected to be fierce, and they were.

More than 70 people, mostly Musharraf soldiers and police, were blown to pieces over the weekend, in a string of attacks and suicide bombings.

Islamists have called for a holy war against the Musharraf regime, and few serious commentators doubt that it won't become a reality. The peace agreement reached between Musharraf and pro-Taliban tribal leaders in the north west of Pakistan's remote territories has been torn up. Local leaders have now vowed to go to war on the Pakistan military.

Perversely, having a holy war declared against himself, and having suicide attacks and Islamist terrorism explode across the country, will actually work in President Musharraf's favour, at least on one key issue : he will realistically be able to delay the coming elections, as he will be able to declare his country is in a state of national emergency.

From AFP :

At least 14 people were killed Sunday in a blast at a police recruitment centre in North West Frontier Province, hours after two explosives-packed cars plowed into an army convoy in the province's Swat Valley, claiming 17 lives.

The previous day, a suicide car bomber killed 24 people in a similar attack on a paramilitary convoy in North Waziristan tribal region, launching the string of attacks that has also left scores of troops and civilians wounded.

The bloodshed came amid outrage across the mainly Muslim nation over the army's raid last week on Islamabad's Red Mosque, which has saddled President Pervez Musharraf with the worst crisis since he took power in 1999.

The army attack that killed 86, mostly militants, led Al-Qaeda's number two to call for jihad against the Pakistan government, which has sent thousands of troops into remote tribal areas to try to keep a lid on bubbling popular anger.

Pro-Taliban militants in North Waziristan scrapped a controversial peace accord reached with the government last year, in which the tribal groups had promised to hunt down foreign fighters in return for security assurances.

The Taliban Shura (Taliban Council) said in pamphlets that it would refuse all dialogue and cooperation with authorities after the government had failed to meet a Sunday deadline to abandon 25 new military checkpoints.

"We had signed the agreement for the safety and protection of the lives and property of our people," the statement said. "But the government forces continued to launch attacks on the Taliban and have killed a number of people."

Militants last week had attacked police and security posts in the Swat Valley after local pro-Taliban cleric Maulvi Fazlullah in radio broadcasts urged followers to wage jihad over the mosque attack.

President Musharraf has vowed to crush all "extremists" and promised to "root them out from every corner of the country."

Exactly the kind of talk Bush Co. likes to hear, but an incredibly hard reality to bring to life. Musharraf has neither the military or police resources to "root them out" from every remote territory, mountain pass, isolated valley or city back alley in the country. Most Pakistanis support Musharraf in fighting Islamic extremists, but the pro-Taliban tribes hare believed to have deep and loyal ties to valuable and important members of the military infrastructure.

This report claims that Al Qaeda was behind the Red Mosque uprising, based on "secret Pakistani government documents" :

...leaked reports from the Government claiming that documents recovered from the mosque and the neighbouring madrassas prove conclusively that al-Qa'ida - and specifically Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri - directed the uprising, maintaining close contact with Abdul Rashid Ghazi, who died in the battle.

Intelligence officials also claimed al-Qa'ida had sent foreign fighters to assist in the rebellion, with Interior Ministry spokesman Javed Cheema saying yesterday the bodies of at least 10 such Chechens and Arabs had been recovered. But as the Government counted the cost of the suicide attacks and anti-government protests swept several cities over the storming of the mosque, it was the controversy over the real death toll that spelled trouble ahead for President Pervez Musharraf.

General Hamid Gul, a powerful former head of the ISI spying agency who is now one of the President's most trenchant critics, said yesterday the emerging accounts of women and children who were killed could lead to the military ruler's downfall. "The Government is trying to hide the number of young girls killed," he said. "As the truth comes out that young girls were gassed and burnt, riddled with bullets and killed, it'll be bad for Musharraf."

Speaking to reporters yesterday, Brigadier Cheema maintained that claims about the death toll and the killing of women and children were being "exaggerated". He said a total of 103 people had been killed.

He conceded, however, that after the operation ended, "22 charred bodies", including those of seven children, were found in the courtyard of the mosque, and that the bodies of nine females were recovered from a room of the Jamia Hafsa girls' madrassa.

Adding to General Musharraf's difficulties, tribal militants in the province linked to the Taliban and al-Qa'ida said they had given him a four-day deadline to remove Pakistani army checkpoints from the province or they would tear up the so-called "peace accord" they signed with him last year.

For all the horrors of Iraq, and the civil war and its associated terrorism and street fighting, the real 'War On Terror', as defined as being a war against Islamic extremism, is likely to consume Pakistan and Afghanistan, and all the tribal lands in between in the coming months.

US Special Forces will have to get involved, if they aren't already. Pakistan, of course, is a nation armed with nuclear weapons.

And the US government, the US military itself, along with the shared/combined intelligence resources of countries like the UK, Germany, France, Russia, China and Australia, would never let Islamic extremists get within a thousand metres of any known nuclear weapon in the world, if they can actually stop such activity, and you'd presume this would be the top priority for all the major players in the 'War on Terror'.

The risk for all nations, obviously, would simply be far too high to allow the risk to even come close to reality.

The United States is constructing a controversial new military base at the Ghakhi Pass, on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border :

Militants believe this is in preparation for an operation inside Pakistan to clamp down on them as well as to renew the hunt for bin Laden and his associates. As a result, the militants have attacked the new base in an attempt to delay its construction.

"This is a matter of life and death for the mujahideen. We will shed our blood, but we will never let this base be completed..."

A remarkable admission from a US official comes via The Times Of India. The US government is paying the Musharraf regime more than $100 million a month for 80,000 Pakistani soldiers and police to man the border with the Afghanistan, primarily to keep pro-Taliban tribal militias and fighters from entering the Afghanistan war :

The money is meant to be "reimbursements" to Pakistan "for stationing troops and moving them around, and gasoline, and bullets, and training and other costs that they incur as part of the war on terror," US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, told a Congressional panel.

"That's a lot of money," Boucher admitted before the panel about what amounts to a $ 1.2 billion per year reimbursement. "I don't know if it comes to the whole amount of their expenses, but we support their expenses, yes."

The US government is estimated to have spent more than $10 billion is such funding to the Musharraf regime in the past five years of the 'War on Terror.'

The obvious question is how much corruption is involved with such huge amounts of money for equipment, gear, weapons and "expenses". The obvious answer is plenty. And no doubt there is a vast blackmarket trade in smuggling weaponry and ammunition into Afghanistan across remote and unsecured border regions.

Bush Knows Bin Laden Is Hiding In Pakistan But Wont Send Special Forces In To Get Him

Pakistan Militants Scrap Cease Fire Deal - Al Qaeda Gives The Nod

Pakistan Now Beats Israel And Egypt As Biggest Collector Of US (Military) Aid

US Allowed To Pursue Militants Across Pakistan

Trouble Brews In The Swat Valley - A New Front Opens In Pakistan

Mujahadeen Vow To Stop Construction Of New US Military Base On Border Of Afghanistan & Pakistan

Afghanistan : 10o Killed In Three Days Of Attacks, Bombings

Suicide Bombers Kill More Than 30 In Kabul

US Air Strikes Kill Dozens Of Children, Civilians At Religious Schools

The war in Afghanistan grows more deadly, more confused, more convoluted as the current joint Taliban-Al Qaeda offensive unfolds.

It seems all but a certainty that military elements of Pakistan's dictatorship will seep through the border states and join in the fighting. Or to join those who have already crossed into Afghanistan to take on NATO. Clearly, some in Musharraf's military have, but it's only a matter of time before many more of the jihadist elements of Musharraf's clique decide to take on NATO and the forces of the Afghanistan government.

Musharraf can only push back so hard, and the US can only push Musharraf so far. He has already told President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney that if they continually pressure him, and embarrass him in the world's media, he will rein in his current efforts to hold back Pakistan jihadists.

The time when a greater regional conflict breaks out across the borders will be hastened by a furtherance of attacks by American elements in NATO like that of yesterday, where missiles believed to have been fired by a US-controlled drone slammed into a Warziristan madrassa, killing and wounding dozens of teachers, students and locals in a small village.

Earlier in the week, at least seven children were killed, and many more wounded when US air strikes hit a mosque and religious school in the eastern Afghanistan province of Paktika.

US military spokesmen claimed that Al Qaeda fighters were sheltering at the mosque-school complex, and used the children as "human shields." Such claims may play well to the Western audience, but they are dismissed mostly as lies, even if they are true, in Taliban-friendly regions of the border lands.

The belief that the 'War on Terror' is a mere Western-friendly title for what is actually a War On Islam is already a widespread belief across Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Iran and most of Muslim dominated countries. Such attacks on religious schools, while presumably killing Al Qaeda fighters, also ratchet up civilian casualties and supply endless propaganda material for Al Qaeda and the Taliban to capitalise on. And capitalise they do.

In three days of fighting in southern Afghanistan, more than 100 people have been killed, including Taliban militants, police and dozens of civilians :

Mullah Ahmidullah Khan, the head of Uruzgan's provincial council, said clashes in Chora district had killed 60 civilians, 70 suspected Taliban militants and 16 Afghan police.

An official close to the Uruzgan governor, who asked not to be identified because he was talking about preliminary estimates, said 70 to 75 civilians had been killed or wounded, while more than 100 Taliban and more than 35 police had been killed.

Police said Monday they had detained a suspect in connection with the deadly suicide bombing that destroyed a bus full of police instructors at Kabul's busiest transportation hub, killing 35 people and wounding 52.

Sunday's enormous blast didn't leave much of the bus and it didn't leave much left of the notion that the renewed Taliban insurgency is being contained in Afghanistan...

The attack wasn't only deadly, it made several points: the Taliban attacks are becoming bolder, more frequent and are spreading across the country...

The bombing raised the specter of an increase in Iraq-style bombings with heavy casualties. It was at least the fourth attack against a bus carrying Afghan police or army soldiers in Kabul in the last year. The bomb sheared off the bus' metal sidings and roof, leaving a charred frame.

The explosion was the fifth suicide attack in Afghanistan in three days, part of a sharp spike in violence around the country.

Afghan officials have recently said that civilian deaths are the main concern of Afghans, and President Hamid Karzai has repeatedly called for foreign troops to do more to prevent civilian casualties.

Insurgency-related violence has killed more than 2,400 people in Afghanistan this year, mostly insurgents, according to an AP count based on figures from U.S., NATO, U.N. and Afghan officials.

More on the Sunday suicide attack on Afghan police trainers from the UK Independent :

The deadliest attack by militants since the ousting of the Taliban killed 35 people and wounded at least the same number yesterday when a bomb destroyed a bus packed with police recruits in Kabul.

One of the wounded recounted how the bomb had exploded when the bus was close to the station. Khalid Mohammed Ali, who suffered injuries to his stomach and legs, said: "There were lots of policemen in the bus and the bomb was near the front. The top of the bus blew off and there were people screaming and shouting. I felt something hot and a pain in my stomach. Then I saw blood on my right leg and there was a hole there."

Amir Nasrullah, 38, a shopkeeper said: "I first heard a roaring noise then I saw the bus was on fire. I saw one man with his arm hanging off but he was still alive. There were two others who looked dead."

Officials said at least 22 of the dead were police recruits and that two Pakistanis, two Japanese and one Korean national were among the wounded.

Last Saturday, suicide bombers hit targets in Kabul and killed four people :

A suicide car-bomber attacked a military-civilian convoy in Kabul on Saturday morning, killing at least three civilians and wounding five others, government and police officials said.

Hours later, two bombers riding a motorcycle attacked a military convoy in Mazar-i-Sharif, killing at least one Afghan civilian and wounding 15, a local security official said.

A spokesman for the Taliban, waging an insurgency against the Afghan government and its foreign allies, said the group was behind the attacks, which included two suicide blasts on Friday in south and central Afghanistan.

"Our many Taliban suiciders are present in the all cities in Afghanistan," Taliban spokesman Zabi-u-llah Mujahid told Reuters by satellite phone. "We will increase our suicide and guerrilla attacks...in coming days," he added.

The Taliban and their al Qaeda allies have adopted the tactics of Iraq's insurgency over the past two years, using suicide bombings, mostly aimed at foreign troops, to try to dispel the notion that foreign and Afghan forces are in control.

In Mazar-i-Sharif, seen as one of the most peaceful Afghan cities, the motorcycle bombers blew up as the convoy swept past on a stretch of road near a crowded vegetable market. It was the first suicide bombing in Mazar-i-Sharif in three years

The Taliban promised earlier this year that it had more than 2000 fighters willing to become suicide bombers and they had been sent out to every city and every major town and village to wait for their moment to attack NATO forces and their allies in the Afghanistan government, police and military forces. When a wave of suicide bombings failed to appear in April, US commentators, and some US government military and government spokespersons, adopted mocking tones claiming the Taliban had conned the world's media into repeating its propaganda as fact.

The last week has proved that the Taliban's claim of having 2000 suicide bombers in reserve may not have simply been propaganda.


A remarkable confession from a former British ambassador to Washington on why the UK felt such an urgent need to join the United States in the War On Afghanistan, following the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Prime Minister Tony Blair was afraid that if he didn't join the US, and the US went in alone, President Bush would have "nuked the shit" out of the Taliban dominated country :

Christopher Meyer said that fear explained why Prime Minister Tony Blair chose to stand with US President George W. Bush in his decision to invade Afghanistan in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks -- to temper his aggressive battle plans.

"Blair's real concern was that there would be quote unquote 'a knee-jerk reaction' by the Americans ... they would go thundering off and nuke the shit out of the place without thinking straight..."

Finally, David Ax, writing for Military.com, has an essential read : Anatomy Of A Suicide Bombing. It takes you through the process of how investigators piece together the trail that leads up to a suicide bombing in Afghanistan. It's a very important story, the kind that is rarely reported in the mainstream media, and Ax has done a remarkable job.

3 American Troops, Afghan Interpreter Killed By Roadside Bomb In Southern Afghanistan

US/NATO Air Strikes Killing Civilians Seriously Erode Afghan Goodwill Towards Coalition, Build Grassroots Support For Taliban-Al Qaeda

3 Canadian Soldiers, 5 Afghans Killed In Roadside Bombings In Southern Afghanistan

BBC : Can The War In Afghanistan Be Won?

The Iranian Influence In Afghanistan

The Misery Of Heroin In Afghanistan Spreads Amongst Poverty, Trauma, High Unemployment

MULLAH OMAH NEGOTIATED TALIBAN PEACE DEAL WITH PAKISTAN

From The UK Telegraph :

The fugitive Taliban commander Mullah Omar has emerged as the key player behind the movement's controversial peace deal with Pakistan.

The Taliban's one-eyed spiritual leader, who has a $10 million price on his head for refusing to hand over Osama bin Laden after the September 11 attacks, signed a letter explicitly endorsing the truce announced this month. The deal between the Pakistani authorities and pro-Taliban militants in the tribal provinces bordering Afghanistan was designed to end five years of bloodshed in the area.

In return for an end to the US-backed government campaign in Waziristan, the tribal leaders - who have harboured Taliban and al-Qaeda units for more than five years - agreed to halt attacks on Pakistani troops, more than 500 of whom have been killed. The deal has been widely criticised as over-generous, with no way to enforce the Taliban's promise not to enter Afghanistan to attack coalition troops.

The disclosure that Mullah Omar personally backed the deal will come as a fresh embarrassment to Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf, who met President Bush in Washington on Friday to discuss security in the region.

While officially a US ally in the war on terror, Pakistan has been repeatedly accused by Afghanistan of not doing enough to clear Taliban militants out of its border regions, allegations it denies. However, Mullah Omar clearly felt that the deal benefited the Taliban, adding force to criticisms that it was in effect a cave-in. Tribal elders in south Waziristan said that Mullah Omar had sent one of his most trusted and feared commanders, Mullah Dadullah, to ask local militants to sign the truce. Dadullah, a one-legged fighter known for his fondness for beheading his enemies, is believed to be the man leading the campaign in southern Afghanistan in which 18 British troops have been killed.

"Had they been not asked by Mullah Omar, none of them were willing to sign an agreement," said Lateef Afridi, a tribal elder and former national assembly member. "This is no peace agreement, it is accepting Taliban rule in Pakistan's territory."

Waziristan has a 50-mile border with Afghanistan's Paktika province, long a trouble spot for US and Afghan forces in their battle against al-Qaeda and Taliban renegades. It is home to three tiers of Islamists who operate freely. Of greatest security concern is the al-Qaeda element, followed by Afghani Taliban and then local Taliban.

In return for a reduction in the Pakistani army's 80,000-strong presence and the release of about 165 hardcore militants arrested for attacks on Pakistani armed forces, local Taliban agreed to stop supporting the foreign militants in their midst, and promised not to set up their own fundamentalist administrations.

The government also agreed to compensate tribal leaders for the loss of life and property, and to return all weapons and vehicles seized during army operations.

Critics say the deal is a dangerous climb-down by Gen Musharraf, who is under huge pressure from religious conservatives in his own country to curb his US-backed fight against militant Islam.

BUSH VOWS TO GO AFTER BIN LADEN IN PAKISTAN

BUT CIA SAYS BIN LADEN HUNT HAS GONE "STONE COLD"

From Bloomberg :

U.S. forces hunting Osama bin Laden and other terrorists in Afghanistan will cross into Pakistan if necessary, U.S. President George W. Bush said, as the leaders of the two neighboring countries traded blame over the insurgency.

"We would take the action necessary to bring them to justice,'' Bush said in an interview with Cable News Network yesterday. When asked if he would order U.S. troops into Pakistan to capture or kill bin Laden, if intelligence indicated he was hiding there, Bush responded: "Absolutely.''

Bin Laden has been on the run since a U.S.-led coalition ousted the Islamist Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar, who sheltered the al-Qaeda chief and hosted his training camps, has also evaded capture.

The guerrilla war being waged by Taliban rebels is a source of tension between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf. The pair clashed at the United Nations General Assembly in New York yesterday, each saying the other must do more to tackle the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

Bush will hold talks with Musharraf and Karzai in Washington on Sept. 27 to discuss the joint fight against terrorism, White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

"I view President Musharraf as somebody who would like to bring al-Qaeda to justice,'' Bush told CNN, when asked whether the Pakistani leader was doing enough to track down terrorists in tribal regions bordering Afghanistan. ``There's no question there is a kind of a hostile territory in the remote regions of Pakistan that makes it easier for somebody to hide.''

Musharraf, who has faced opposition from Islamist groups for supporting the U.S.-led war on terrorism, said his government would oppose any U.S. action in Pakistan.

"We wouldn't like to allow that at all,'' he told reporters in New York. "We will do it ourselves.''

A January 13 U.S. air strike on suspected al-Qaeda figures in a village in northwestern Pakistan killed 18 people and sparked protests against the U.S. across the country.

Musharraf and Karzai have been at odds over efforts to dislodge Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters hiding along the mountainous border between the two countries.

"We must look beyond Afghanistan to the sources of terrorism,'' Karzai said in a speech to the General Assembly yesterday, without mentioning Pakistan. ``We must destroy terrorism sanctuaries beyond Afghanistan, dismantle the elaborate networks in the region that recruit, indoctrinate, train, finance and deploy terrorists.''

Musharraf took issue with Karzai's comments and said his government is pursuing a "massive, multi-pronged'' political and military strategy to tackle insurgents.

"The problem lies in Afghanistan,'' he said, adding that Omar was sheltering in Afghanistan's southern Kandahar province. "Military action is required against him and his commanders,'' Musharraf added.

The Pakistani president defended an accord signed this month with pro-Taliban tribal leaders in the North Waziristan region to expel foreign al-Qaeda-linked fighters, in return for scaling back the number of Pakistani troops in the area.

"We need to take the influential tribal elders on our side,'' Musharraf said yesterday, according to the Associated Press of Pakistan. "We have to tackle Talibanization,'' he said, adding it was important to "wean away the population from getting on their side.''

From the Asia Times :

The al-Qaeda leader recently traveled from the South Waziristan tribal area in Pakistan to somewhere in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nooristan, or possibly Bajour, a s mall tribal agency in the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan in North-West Frontier Province.

According to a witness, bin Laden traveled in a double-cabin truck with a few armed guards - not in a convoy. Apparently, this is how he now prefers to move around.

Bin Laden, with a US$25 million bounty on his head, has not been sighted for some time, and he has not been seen on any new videotape since late 2004, although audio tapes purporting to be him speaking surfaced this year.

At the same time, a close aide responsible for bin Laden's logistics and media relations told Asia Times Online that bin Laden had recovered from serious kidney-related ailments.

In Tuesday's attack in Damascus, four men tried to drive two explosives-laden cars into the US Embassy compound. Four of them and a security official were killed. One of the cars exploded outside the compound.

The incident not only carries al-Qaeda hallmarks, it is also very much in line with the al-Qaeda leadership's focus, agreed on during the Israel-Hezbollah war, to extend the flames of conflict across the region.

In this vein, bin Laden's No 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, warned on Monday that the Persian Gulf region and Israel would be the next targets of al-Qaeda. He was speaking in a video message released to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States.

In addition to bin Laden's improved health, al-Qaeda has in the past few months gained some breathing room to regroup and solidify its logistics as a result of the situation in the semi-autonomous North and South Waziristan tribal areas.

This area has long been home to al-Qaeda elements, but until recently they had been under intense pressure from Pakistan's security forces. However, as the tribals gained more strength - some Taliban-affiliated districts have even been declared independent of Islamabad - the authorities realized they were fighting a losing battle.

This culminated last week in security officials and the "Pakistani Taliban" agreeing to a temporary ceasefire. Previously choked channels between the Waziristans and other parts of Pakistan were now fully opened, allowing al-Qaeda to start moving money again.

A new dynamic among militant groups has emerged in Egypt to complement al-Qaeda's designs in the Middle East. Tuesday's Damascus attack could also be an illustration of this.

Many youths previously associated with the militant Gamaa Islamiya of Egypt have formed independent cells, while some Egyptian youths of Palestinian origin have created underground organizations to target the pro-Israeli Egyptian government and US interests.

Credit goes to al-Qaeda that in the past six months it established inroads into these organizations, to the extent that they are now directly under the command of the al-Qaeda leadership.

This was confirmed by Zawahiri last month in a videotape aired on Al-Jazeera news network: "We announce to the Islamic nation the good news of the unification of a great faction of the knights of the Gamaa Islamiya ... with the al-Qaeda group."

Al-Qaeda has evolved into more of an ideological inspiration to sharpen Muslim reaction against the West and create a backlash than a militant group. Five years of the US-led "war on terror" damaged its structure and it was forced to melt into the local resistance movements of Iraq and Afghanistan. Already, the Taliban and Iraqi resistances complement each other, sharing experience, skills and even logistics.

From this position, al-Qaeda will work to bind all local resistance movements into one coordinated unit against the US and its allies, with the ultimate aim of creating a universal Muslim backlash against the West.

The Israel-Hezbollah war proved the ideal starting point for this plan. The successful defense of Lebanon by Hezbollah was largely taken in the Arab world as the first Arab victory against Israel. Sentiment on the streets of the Middle East turned noticeably against the US, Israel and pro-West Muslim rulers.

Al-Qaeda wants to keep this mood, and inflame it even further. Attacks like the one in Damascus could be such pot-boilers. More, and bigger, ones are most likely being plotted by the masterminds sitting in the tribal areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

From the Washington Post :

The clandestine U.S. commandos whose job is to capture or kill Osama bin Laden have not received a credible lead in more than two years. Nothing from the vast U.S. intelligence world -- no tips from informants, no snippets from electronic intercepts, no points on any satellite image -- has led them anywhere near the al-Qaeda leader, according to U.S. and Pakistani officials.

"The handful of assets we have have given us nothing close to real-time intelligence" that could have led to his capture, said one counterterrorism official, who said the trail, despite the most extensive manhunt in U.S. history, has gone "stone cold."

But in the last three months, following a request from President Bush to "flood the zone," the CIA has sharply increased the number of intelligence officers and assets devoted to the pursuit of bin Laden. The intelligence officers will team with the military's secretive Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and with more resources from the National Security Agency and other intelligence agencies.

War in Pakistan will now increase. Where US troops go, so terrorism tends to follow.