Russia : The North Pole Is Ours

The "Battle For Arctic Oil" Has Begun



Graphic From BBC

UPDATE : Russian military and government officials are "annoyed" at the reactions from the United States, Canada and much of the Western media to their claiming a significant part of the North Pole. The reaction from the West, and the reaction to that reaction from the Russians were both to be expected. But the coverage in the Russian media is particularly :

Russian newspapers on Friday lauded the expedition, calling it a first step in what daily Vremya Novostei referred to as "the battle for Arctic oil."

Government daily Rossiiskaya Gazeta went further, saying the division of the Arctic "is the start of a new redistribution of the world."

In the Western media, the Russian flag-planting on the Arctic sea floor was widely dismissed as a "joke" and a "stunt". Not so in the Russian media.

The Russian media is well ahead of the Western media in preparing its people for the looming confrontations of Arctic energy reserves. Russia moved first, and fast. But Canada and the United States, in particular, will not let them stake their claim so easily.


As we've discussed here numerous times before, the Arctic is likely to be the setting for the true world war between the superpowers, as they battle to secure the vast energy and mineral reserves still trapped beneath the ice.

Global warming is now rapidly melting that ice, and the legendary NorthWest passage for shortened shipping routes across the top of the world is likely to be opened, during the summer months, withing years.

Yesterday, Russia garnered major headlines for a "stunt" where they fixed a metal pole, in place of a flag, to the seabed off the Siberian cost. Russia claims there are billions of barrels of oil, and possibly trillions of square feet of natural gas under the sea floor off Siberia, and they have caused an international crisis by claiming they own it all.

The Bush administration has been next to silent on their own claims to the Arctic, via Alaska, but the Navy has been making loud noises about expanding their polar fleet and buying more ice-breakers.

Canada, however, has been actively building up its populace to not only believe they have the right to claim a good part of the Arctic and all its riches for themselves, but that it is territory they must defend, through billions of dollars of new defence spending for Arctic ships and even military deployments.

America wants control of Middle East oil because its own strategic reserves are being rapidly depleted, and it feels the fight to control Venezuelan oil may not be worth the fight.

Russia has cut deals worth tens of billions of dollars with Iran for its oil and gas, so it feels it has time enough up its sleeve to secure its future energy reserves by tackling the Arctic.

China, now aligned with Russia and Iran, knows the Arctic will be important in two decades time, and is reportedly building submarines and a polar Navy in anticipation.

There has been much mocking in the Western media, particularly in the US mainstream media aligned with BushCo and the Neocons, about Russia's "claim" on almost half the North Pole, but the flag-planting on the sea floor is being viewed as an incredibly historic event by Russian media, and has been widely celebrated.

The US writes off the "claim" as being something of a joke. But Russia is deadly serious. The US, and Canada, are likely to see just how deadly serious Russia is when they try to challenge the new Russian sovereignty of the richest untapped energy deposits left in the world today.

We'll have more on this, and a look back on the past two years of the developing 'Arctic Wars' over the weekend.


The Coming War In The Arctic

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The Coming War In The Arctic

Russia Announces Plan To Annexes Huge New, Oil & Gas Rich Territory


Graphic From BBC

Note : As some commenters pointed out, there is little actual land under the ice of the North Pole to be fought over. The below article probably doesn't make the point clear enough that potential conflicts will be over the divvying up of energy and mineral spoils from the ocean and the currently ice-covered coastal regions. The potential for future conflict not only includes the temptation for the more powerful nations to lay claim to territory that is rich in oil and gas, be it on land or in the ocean, but the US, Russia, Canada and Greenland do not have well defined borders in the Arctic, and the control of two potential new ice-free sea lanes for shipping will also be challenged.

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When we first started writing about 'The Coming Arctic Wars' on this site more than 15 months ago, we thought the reality of such a situation as reported below actually developing to be not much more than a rank outsider in the sprawl of possible conflicts that could break out between nations out as the 'War on Terror' spreads, and increases its momentum and capacity to destabilise.

But Russia has decided that the United States is weak enough, now it has most of military and equipment bogged down in the Middle East, to not put up much of a fight over who owns what in the the Arctic Circle, so it has decided to announce a plan to annex an astounding 460,000 square miles of international territory. That's equal to the land mass of Italy, Germany and France, combined.

Sure, it's covered by ice and snow right now. But if global warming increases, and some of the more mind-boggling predictions of rapid climate change turn true, and the Arctic loses most of its summer ice, there are hundreds of millions of hectares of land up there that may be ready for development and exploitation in less than 20 years.

Even the most conservative estimates of untapped oil and mineral wealth in the currently frozen Arctic are in the range of many trillions of dollars. Unofficial estimates, the kind that oil and mining companies don't make public, because they are usually guesstimates, think there could be tens of trillions of dollars worth of oil, gas, coal and various minerals up there.

In the scope of world headlines, the news of what Russia is going to do will impact little. Right now. But decades from now, the day that Russia decided to announce it intendeds to annex international territory in the Arctic will probably be marked as the day the Arctic Wars really began.

And have no doubt that the countries bordering the Arctic will fight over the land that is losing its shield of ice and snow, and the North and NorthWest trade routes that are opening up now the sea ice is diminishing. They will fight over it all.

Not all the fights will end up with exchanges of missiles and gun boats blocking new shipping routes, but in a world where resources are running low, and vast tracts of land are depleted turning to desert, an ice-free Arctic will be the most coveted prize in the history of modern humankind.

Unpolluted, unexploited, unclaimed, undeveloped, unpopulated.

The Arctic will be a prize worth fighting and dying for. At least for the troops that the US, Canada and Russia send in to seize and hold territory some time after 2010.

From the UK Guardian :

It is already the world's biggest country, spanning 11 time zones and stretching from Europe to the far east. But yesterday Russia signalled its intention to get even bigger by announcing an audacious plan to annex a vast 460,000 square mile chunk of the frozen and ice-encrusted Arctic.

According to Russian scientists, there is new evidence backing Russia's claim that its northern Arctic region is directly linked to the North Pole via an underwater shelf.

Under international law, no country owns the North Pole. Instead, the five surrounding Arctic states, Russia, the US, Canada, Norway and Denmark (via Greenland), are limited to a 200-mile economic zone around their coasts.

On Monday, however, a group of Russian geologists returned from a six-week voyage on a nuclear icebreaker. They had travelled to the Lomonosov ridge, an underwater shelf in Russia's remote and inhospitable eastern Arctic Ocean.

According to Russia's media, the geologists returned with the "sensational news" that the Lomonosov ridge was linked to Russian Federation territory, boosting Russia's claim over the oil-and-gas rich triangle. The territory contained 10bn tonnes of gas and oil deposits, the scientists said.

Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper celebrated the discovery by printing a large map of the North Pole. It showed the new "addition" to Russia - the size of France, Germany and Italy combined - under a white, blue and red Russian flag.

Mr Priamikov said the area was one of breathtaking natural beauty. It was much drier, colder and quieter than the western Arctic, he added. "I've been there many times. It's an oasis for marine life," he said. Asked whether it would be feasible to drill for oil, he said: "Yes".

The shelf was 200 metres deep and oil and gas would be easy to extract, especially with ice melting because of global warming, he said.

Russia has the world's largest gas reserves. It is the second largest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia. The Kremlin is keen to secure Russia's long-term hegemony over global energy markets, and to find new sources of fuel.

Well, not only has Russia now found "new sources of fuel", it's annexed the territory in which they lie. And Russia is likely to claim more, as the ice melts, and the 'Arctic Gold Rush' begins in the next decade.

Before the United States starts fighting with Russia over who can claim how much Arctic territory for themselves, they have to sort out their own borders with Canada and get out of Iraq.

Russia isn't waiting for Canada, Greenland and the United States to work out what they want. Russia knows what it wants, and it's taking it now, before the real fighting begins.

Canada, however, has not been slack when it comes to marking out future territory for energy exploitation and new trading and shipping routes.

From The Fourth World War blog, March, 2006 :

Russia, the US and even Greenland are enthusiastically eyeing off the opening up of new shipping lanes that will cut months off the journeys of major freight travels. As the ice retreats, not only do new shipping lanes become passable, but new areas exploitable for mining, oil extraction and even coastal residential development all become reality.

Canada controls some of the most valuable coastline in the new ice-free Arctic of the coming decades, but even they are already aware they will have to defend it.

The idea that war could break out in the Arctic between countries like Canada, Russia, Greenland and the US seem almost incomprehensible, but Canada at least is taking this future issue very seriously indeed.

April, 2006 : Canada Deploys Military On 'Epic' Arctic Recon

'Arctic Wars' Heat Up As Canada Makes Move On Rapidly Melting Territory

January, 2006 : Canada Steps Up Arctic Patrols, Plans Military Deployments, Clashes with US over NorthWest Passage

Russia Lays Claim To North Pole And All Its Oil, Gas And Diamonds

Russia Begins Mass Production Of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles

Canadian Sub Will 'Fly Flag' As It Takes Part In Arctic Military Exercises

Russia Sends Nuclear Powered Ship To Arctic For "Tests"

THE FUTURE ARCTIC WAR COMES INTO FOCUS

CANADA PREPARES TO DEPLOY ARMED SHIPS, SOLDIERS TO PROTECT ARCTIC DOMINION

From Canadian Press :

"Canada's dominion over the frozen north has been routinely challenged over the years, but it has happened with increasing frequency as global warming has made the once ice-clogged passageways easier to traverse.


Russia, the US and even Greenland are enthusiastically eyeing off the opening up of new shipping lanes that will cut months off the journeys of major freight travels. As the ice retreats, not only do new shipping lanes become passable, but new areas exploitable for mining, oil extraction and even coastal residential development all become reality.

Canada controls some of the most valuable coastline in the new ice-free Arctic of the coming decades, but even they are already aware they will have to defend it.

The idea that war could break out in the Arctic between countries like Canada, Russia, Greenland and the US seem almost incomprehensible, but Canada at least is taking this future issue very seriously indeed.

More from Canadian Press :

"The best to way to safely and quickly dispatch armed icebreakers to the Arctic would be to equip existing vessels with 50-calibre weapons, the commander of Joint Task Force Atlantic said Wednesday.

"Rear Admiral Dan McNeil said Canada could assert its presence and sovereignty in the north by placing naval personnel on coast guard icebreakers that could patrol the frozen archipelago that has caused jurisdictional rifts with the United States.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper made the pledge, that would also establish a deep-water submarine base in the Arctic, during the recent election campaign.

"The Conservatives have revealed few details about how they plan to roll out their military package, which included promises to recruit 13,000 new, full-time soldiers and another 10,000 reservists, and to buy new ships and planes.

"They have pledged to add $5.3 billion to the defence budget over five years.

"Prime Minister Harper issued a warning shot to the States following his election win in January when he said he would stick to his plan to exert its authority in the North despite criticism from U.S. Ambassador David Wilkins."