BushCo. Warned Over Aggressive Stance Over Iranian Nuclear Programs

War On Iran : US Finds Ally In France

French Minister Says 'Prepare For War'

The United States under BushCo. and France under the control of NeoCons are firming up as allies in a growing state of near-war on Iran.

Many commentators in the US are now saying the American people are being prepared, through a co-ordinated and highly inflammatory media campaign running from vice president Dick Cheney's office, for a series of pre-emptive strikes on Iran's nuclear energy installations and facilities.

Israel says Iran is a greater threat than Iraq ever was, and so the United States must do as they're told.

Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons, hasn't invaded or directly attacked another country in centuries and has one of the most American-influenced cultures in the entire Middle East, particularly amongst its youth.

But if the US or Israel, or the US and Israel and France, go to war on Iran, it seems likely that most of the nation's youth will rise against the "infidels". They may enjoy American TV and music and fashion, but the deeply religious and nationalistic youth are unlikely to tolerate deadly acts of aggression from the NeoCons.

The idea that the US, or Israel, could fly in, hit a hundred targets and then everything would settle down is insanity.

If the US and/or Israel and/or France attack Iran in the coming year, you will no need no further proof that the NeoCon mission in the Middle East is to sew chaos, death and destruction rather than the spreading of liberty and democracy.

China and Russia, who both have hundreds of billions of dollars in business and state interests in Iran have threatened in the past to retaliate against any nation that attacks Iran.

From the UK Guardian :

The head of the UN's nuclear agency today warned against increasing "hype" towards war with Iran, saying countries should heed the lessons of the build-up to the Iraq conflict.

The strongly worded comments by Mohamed ElBaradei, who leads the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), follow a warning by the French foreign minister that the world should brace itself for a possible war with Iran.

"We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war," Bernard Kouchner told French TV and radio.

While talks over Iran's controversial nuclear programme should continue "right to the end", Mr Kouchner said, an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose "a real danger for the whole world". Under President Nicolas Sarkozy, France has taken a much harsher line towards Iran than under Jacques Chirac.

In a perceived riposte to the comments, Mr ElBaradei urged caution. "We need to be cool," he told reporters at the IAEA's annual conference in Vienna. "We need not to hype the issue".

"I would not talk about any use of force," he said. "There are rules on how to use force, and I would hope that everybody would have gotten the lesson after the Iraq situation, where 70,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives on the suspicion that a country has nuclear weapons."

The comments come at a time of heightened tension between Iran and the US, which has stepped up accusations of Iranian support for Shia militias targeting US forces in Iraq.

Washington is also seeking a third round of UN sanctions against Iran over its refusal to stop uranium enrichment, and has accused the country of secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran has rejected those charges, saying its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, including generating electricity.

At today's meeting in Vienna, Iran's vice-president warned the US and others against provoking a confrontation.

Western nations had "proved that you cannot tolerate the addition of independent states and developing countries to the ongoing movement of those seeking to achieve ownership of modern technology", said Reza Aghazadeh, who also heads Iran's nuclear agency.

"The great nation of Iran has recorded your discriminatory behaviour and performance in its memory and will not forget," he was quoted as saying by the AFP news agency.

Separately, however, the country's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said he wanted peace and friendship with Washington, despite mounting speculation over possible US strikes.

"Our message to the American nation is a message of peace, friendship, brotherhood and respect for humans," the official IRNA news agency quoted Mr Ahmadinejad as saying on the state-owned Jame Jam television network yesterday.

There'll be no more snarky comments from hawkish Republicans about "freedom fries" and "surrender monkeys" when they start talking up the "bravery" and "support" France is now showing for BushCo.'s increasingly aggressive stance towards Iran :

France followed up a warning that the Iran nuclear crisis could lead to war by calling on Monday for European sanctions against Tehran.

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said tensions with Iran are now "extreme", heightening a diplomatic storm caused by Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's warning on Sunday that the world should prepare for a conflict over Iran's alleged work on a nuclear weapon.

Kouchner met his Dutch counterpart Maxime Verhagen in Paris and said European countries should prepare their own non-UN sanctions.

"These would be European sanctions that each country, individually, must put in place with its own banking, commercial and industrial system. The English and the Germans are interested in talking about this. We will try to find a common European position," Kouchner said.

On Sunday, Kouchner used the toughest language to date from a French minister, warning that "we have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war." If Tehran possessed an atomic weapon, it would be a "real danger for the whole world," he said in an interview.

Speaking Monday, the French prime minister said: "The Iranians must understand that tension has reached an extreme point... in the relationship between Iran and its neighbours."

He added however that "a confrontation with Iran is the last option that any political leader would want."

Iran insists its nuclear work is peaceful and Vice President Reza Aghazadeh, who is also head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation (AEOI), warned the West against seeking a confrontation.

Western countries "have always chosen the path of confrontation instead of the path of understanding and cordial relations toward the great nation of Iran," he told the UN meeting in Vienna.

"The great nation of Iran has recorded your discriminatory behavior and performance in its memory and will not forget," Aghazadeh said.

In Tehran, foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said in a statement: "It seems that the French foreign minister has forgotten the policy of the European Union" with his war warning.

"The use of such words creates tensions and is contrary to the cultural history and civilisation of France," he added.

The IAEA director general also said that force should not be used yet to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.

"We need always to remember that use of force could only be resorted to when ... every other option has been exhausted. I don't think we are at all there," ElBaradei told reporters on the sidelines of the conference, at which he expressed regret at Iran's refusal to fall in line with UN resolutions.

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A growing majority of military analysts appear to be settling on the scenario that the United States will launch air strikes on a number of Iran's nuclear energy facilities, or will quietly encourage Israel to launch the strikes, but will not launch a ground invasion.

One particularly interesting scenario now surfacing in the US is that the pressure to launch air strikes against Iran are not coming from President Bush, but from Vice President Dick Cheney, who is supposedly furious at moves by the president, and Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice to engage in talks and negotiations with the Iranians over their nuclear energy future.

And yet, as fresh moves begin to increase the international sanctions levelled against Iran, the United States now has a monumental display of naval and air power performing "exercises" just off the coast of Iran.

President Bush is now more focused on blaming Iran for the failure of the American "troop surge" in Baghdad than he is on pushing claims they are working towards nuclear weapons.

Whether or not the Bush and US military claims that Iran is fighting a covert war against the US in Iraq, through weapons supplies, financing and training of 'Al Qaeda' militants, is still debatable.

But reportedly reliable White House insiders claim that Cheney wants the bombing to begin now, not in a few months, or a few years, when the IAEA says Iran is likely to have developed nuclear weapons, if they are actually even developing nuclear weapons :

Multiple sources have reported that a senior aide on Vice President Cheney's national security team has been meeting with policy hands of the American Enterprise Institute, one other think tank, and more than one national security consulting house and explicitly stating that Vice President Cheney does not support President Bush's tack towards Condoleezza Rice's diplomatic efforts and fears that the President is taking diplomacy with Iran too seriously.

This White House official has stated to several Washington insiders that Cheney is planning to deploy an "end run strategy" around the President if he and his team lose the policy argument.

The thinking on Cheney's team is to collude with Israel, nudging Israel at some key moment in the ongoing standoff between Iran's nuclear activities and international frustration over this to mount a small-scale conventional strike against Natanz using cruise missiles (i.e., not ballistic missiles).

While the Iraq War dominates the American public's attention, behind the scenes in the corridors of the White House, and in the West Wing itself, a secret war is now unfolding. A war between Bush and Cheney, and their teams of bureaucrats, diplomats and advisers, over when the bombing of Iran should begin.

From The Australian :

The US today threatened new UN sanctions to punish Iran's nuclear drive as it ratcheted up tensions with the biggest display of naval power in the Gulf in years.

A bristling US armada led by two aircraft carriers steamed into waters near Iran for exercises, hours before UN watchdogs said Iran was expanding its uranium enrichment program in defiance of international sanctions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran continues to enrich uranium - which can provide fuel for civilian reactors but also make nuclear bombs.

That prompted warnings from US officials of further UN punishment unless Iran curtails its nuclear development - which the Islamic republic insists is devoted to civilian energy.

The US Navy said the Gulf exercises were not directed at Iran but Mustafa Alani, senior analyst with the UAE-based Gulf Research Centre, said it was no coincidence the powerful flotilla arrived on the day of the IAEA report.

"The aim of this step, which coincides entirely with the end of the UN deadline (to suspend enrichment), is to send a clear message to Iran that a military option is available to Washington," Mr Alani said.

The carriers USS John Stennis and USS Nimitz sailed through the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf along with a helicopter carrier and amphibious assault ships carrying an estimated 2200 marines.

"We do maritime security operations here to reassure friends in the region of our commitment, and certainly this is a viable commitment and a visible one that helps security and stability in the waters here," said Commander Kevin Aandahl, a spokesman for the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.

Mr Alani said a sudden, unexpected outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iran could be triggered by events in Iraq.

Ahead of Monday's talks, the US said Iran was escalating a proxy war against US forces in Iraq as the two nations sparred verbally over a number of their nationals being detained by each other.

From the UK Independent :

The Bush administration may be highlighting accusations that the Iranian government is behind attacks in Iraq in order to strengthen its hand in preparing for military strikes on Iran, according to a leading British think-tank.

In a report sifting the evidence produced by US authorities against Iran, the independent think-tank Basic cast doubt on the strength of the intelligence, saying that proved links between the Tehran regime and militia inside Iraq remained "sketchy".

Given the close ties between Shia Muslim Iran and Iraq, which has a dominant Shia population in the south, the report warned of the dangers of conflating "legitimate acts of foreign relations and cross-border movements of people" with the alleged Iranian involvement in violence.

The UK and US governments have frequently accused Iran of aiding militant groups in Iraq who are attacking coalition forces. However, the report said that "despite efforts by the Bush administration to confirm the strength of evidence presented, doubt still surrounds the case against Iran, particularly with regard to the degree of direct involvement of the Iranian leadership.

"Whatever the true extent and nature of Iranian military action in Iraq, few independent analysts believe Tehran is playing a decisive role in the sectarian warfare and insurgency," said the report.

Turning to the US strategic motivation for highlighting the Iranian role in Iraq, Basic (British American Security Information Council) suggested that Iran could be a "useful scapegoat to divert the blame" for failures in Iraq away from the occupying powers. But also, "if Tehran can be cast as a source of regional instability in the eyes of the international community, then the US administration's hand will be strengthened as it seeks support for stronger measures to oppose Iranian nuclear ambitions".

From CSM :

Iran says it will not succumb to "enemy" efforts to halt its nuclear program, as a US armada deployed in the Persian Gulf – setting the stage for an important week in Iran's standoff with the United States and other world powers.

US and Iranian diplomats are slated to meet in Baghdad Monday, for the first time, to discuss security in Iraq. And key powers are meeting to renew Western efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions after the UN's nuclear watchdog reported substantial progress in enrichment capability by Iran. The report has prompted calls from some countries for a third set of sanctions.

"The enemies want us to surrender so that Iran won't have anything to say in the world," President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday. "With the backing of the Iranian nation, we are not afraid of the enemies' ... psychological warfare, and with God's help, we have come to our ultimate goals."

This week, US commanders have again accused Iran of backing anti-US forces of all stripes in Iraq. On Wednesday, nine warships with 17,000 sailors and marines – the largest US force assembled there in years – passed through the Strait of Hormuz, just miles off Iran's coast. The exercises are to end with an amphibious landing on Kuwait's beaches.

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Here's some snippets from Russian media that have barely registered, let alone recieved any coverage, in Australian, American or British press.

You can write it all off as Russian propaganda if you like. Pray that it's just Russian propaganda, but it fits into the Western media reports of US forces massing in the Persian Gulf, and rising tensions with Russia and the Saudis. It certainly seems like something big is coming.

(Some of these snippets were translated from French via Babelfish, so they might read a bit rough)

From Novosti :

Russian military experts estimate that the planning of the American military attack against Iran passed the point of nonreturn on February 20, when the director of the IAEA, Mohammed El Baradei, recognized, in his report....the incapacity of the Agency "to confirm the peaceful character of the nuclear program of Iran".

...a military action will proceed during the first week of April, before Easter....when the "Western opinion" is on leave. It may be also that Iran is struck Friday 6, public holiday in the Moslem countries.

The report cited claims the attacks will last for a total of twelve hours, and will run under the code name 'Operation Bite'.

A "score" of Iranian nuclear and military installations will be targeted, along with "centres of study" and laboraties tied to the nuclear program.

Predicted response from Iran will be to sink tankers on the Strait of Ormuz to cut oil shipments. Some 25% of the world's oil flows through these straits.

The aim of the attack is set the Iranian nuclear program back by several years.

If the attacks by the United States go ahead, expect oil to roar up and beyond $80 per barrel within days. Back in the US, this could translate into more than $5 a gallon.

What the American media is promoting is the "show of force" the United States is now undertaking in the Persian Gulf. The French are in there as well.

From the Washington Post :

The U.S. Navy on Tuesday began its largest demonstration of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, led by a pair of aircraft carriers and backed by warplanes flying simulated attack maneuvers off the coast of Iran.

The maneuvers bring together two strike groups of U.S. warships and more than 100 U.S. warplanes to conduct simulated air warfare in the crowded Gulf shipping lanes.

The U.S. exercises come just four days after Iran's capture of 15 British sailors and marines who Iran said had strayed into Iranian waters near the Gulf. Britain and the U.S. Navy have insisted the British sailors were operating in Iraqi waters.

A French naval strike group, led by the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, was operating simultaneously just outside the Gulf. But the French ships were supporting the NATO forces in Afghanistanand not taking part in the U.S. maneuvers, officials said.

Overall, the exercises involve more than 10,000 U.S. personnel on warships and aircraft making simulated attacks on enemy shipping with aircraft and ships, hunting enemy submarines and finding mines.

A Russian report on US troop activity from within Iraq, close to Iran's borders :

Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.

The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December 2006.